TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13003421
Played Aug 25Finished
Karel Kapras
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711119811––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingKarel Kapras above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 57.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Karel Kapras 1–2 Vladimir Cermak Karel Kapras has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapras 1557 vs Cermak 1698
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapras 40% vs Cermak 60%
Cermak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapras 40% vs Cermak 60%
Cermak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapras +1 · Cermak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapras form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapras 1.91 / Cermak 1.80
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Cermak)+7.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13003421
Kapras1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 14 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Cermak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 150 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it92% 76 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it80% 118 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKapras1wins
AwayCermak2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderCermak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaprasn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayCermak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapras0Cermak3n = 3Cermak took 3 of 3
S2Kapras0Cermak3n = 3Cermak took 3 of 3
S3Kapras1Cermak2n = 3Cermak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricKaprasCermakK − CBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match31.335.7−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaprasCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 344 vs 546 / 105650.9%51.7%175 / 344 vs 546 / 1056Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakKapras 1.91/Cermak 1.80
Hit
What we said
58.5%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 29 · 19:00K. Kapras—791111113V. Cermak—11119812
LJul 24 · 19:30K. Kapras—71080V. Cermak—1112113
LApr 27 · 16:30K. Kapras—4970V. Cermak—1111113
K. Kapras10
LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113LAug 25 · 21:28J. Stolfa1.674131111113K. Kapras2.10111113842WAug 25 · 19:00K. Kapras1.801111113M. Sobisek1.916580
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113WAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113
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