TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065139
Played Sep 3Finished
Martin Sobisek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1148111179111311
Daniel Tuma
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 96 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 36–52 Daniel Tuma Martin Sobisek has won 36 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tuma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-52 in 88
Tuma
Wrong
gap of 16 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1504 vs Tuma 1630
Tuma
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 0% vs Tuma 100%
Tuma
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 10% vs Tuma 90%
Tuma
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek -5 · Tuma +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 2.00 / Tuma 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Tuma)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065139
Sobisek2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 136 of 351
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 119
Tuma1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 148 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 112 of 147
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek6wins
AwayTuma4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek75%3 of 4
AwayTuma50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S2Sobisek6Tuma4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S3Sobisek5Tuma5n = 10split evenly
S4Sobisek4Tuma2n = 6Sobisek took 4 of 6
S5Sobisek3Tuma2n = 5Sobisek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekTumaS − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.5+1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime556 / 1188 vs 772 / 147646.8%52.3%556 / 1188 vs 772 / 1476Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaSobisek 2.00/Tuma 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 10:30M. Sobisek—1211113D. Tuma—10760
WAug 19 · 07:30M. Sobisek—1011711113D. Tuma—12411972
WAug 17 · 10:30M. Sobisek—4111110113D. Tuma—11781252
WAug 17 · 07:30M. Sobisek—1111113D. Tuma—8860
LAug 15 · 24:00M. Sobisek—11571162D. Tuma—911115113
LAug 14 · 24:00M. Sobisek—89111192D. Tuma—111199113
WAug 10 · 23:30M. Sobisek—1111107113D. Tuma—68121152
WAug 2 · 12:58M. Sobisek—31111113D. Tuma—116621
LAug 2 · 11:00M. Sobisek—3580D. Tuma—1111113
LJul 28 · 13:30M. Sobisek—118100D. Tuma—1311123
M. Sobisek10
LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890WSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123WSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:00D. Tuma1.831113113S. Kadavy1.8391180
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