TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070437
Played Sep 4Finished
Denis Hofman
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113911811––––
Michal Vondrak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Hofman above · Michal Vondrak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 63 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Michal Vondrak at 59.5%
63 points played in total.
H2H Denis Hofman 10–8 Michal Vondrak Michal Vondrak has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:57What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hofman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Hofman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hofman 1683 vs Vondrak 1706
Vondrak
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hofman 0% vs Vondrak 60%
Vondrak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hofman 20% vs Vondrak 50%
Vondrak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hofman -5 · Vondrak +1
Hofman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hofman) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hofman form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHofman 1.73 / Vondrak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vondrak)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070437
Hofman1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 84 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it66% 52 of 79
Vondrak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 76 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back30% 26 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHofman5wins
AwayVondrak5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHofman66.7%2 of 3
AwayVondrak57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hofman3Vondrak7n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10
S2Hofman7Vondrak3n = 10Hofman took 7 of 10
S3Hofman5Vondrak5n = 10split evenly
S4Hofman2Vondrak6n = 8Vondrak took 6 of 8
S5Hofman4Vondrak2n = 6Hofman took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHofmanVondrakH − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.345.6−3.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHofmanVondrakBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 950 vs 320 / 65448.1%48.9%457 / 950 vs 320 / 654Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HofmanHofman 1.73/Vondrak 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hofman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 06:30D. Hofman—11980M. Vondrak—1311113
LAug 19 · 10:30D. Hofman—31271242M. Vondrak—11101110113
WAug 19 · 07:00D. Hofman—6111111113M. Vondrak—11981382
WAug 16 · 21:30D. Hofman—1115123M. Vondrak—813100
LAug 16 · 20:30D. Hofman—811191M. Vondrak—11811113
LAug 12 · 16:00D. Hofman—981151M. Vondrak—11119113
WAug 9 · 16:30D. Hofman—1011175113M. Vondrak—128151172
WJul 29 · 17:00D. Hofman—11111011113M. Vondrak—89121362
LJul 29 · 14:30D. Hofman—16611962M. Vondrak—1411611113
WJul 29 · 10:00D. Hofman—512914113M. Vondrak—1110111272
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141LSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 17:33M. Pikous2.05111081182D. Hofman1.65412113113LSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881
M. Vondrak10
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161WSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 07:30M. Vondrak1.401111113J. Stolfa2.759790WSep 1 · 12:58V. Vejvoda1.80118941M. Vondrak1.9181111113LSep 1 · 12:00V. Vejvoda1.831112113M. Vondrak1.8381060LSep 1 · 11:00J. Zuzanek1.911011511113M. Vondrak1.8012911562WSep 1 · 10:30M. Vondrak1.501111127113J. Tazler2.5053141172WAug 28 · 09:00M. Vondrak1.80911117143V. Cermak1.91116611122LAug 28 · 08:00M. Vondrak1.80911981M. Sychra1.9111911113WAug 28 · 07:30V. Cermak2.20119981M. Vondrak1.6181111113
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