TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13030165
Played Aug 28Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911911811––
Michal Vondrak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:16 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Michal Vondrak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Michal Vondrak at 54.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 6–8 Michal Vondrak Vladimir Cermak has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vondrak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Vondrak
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1563 vs Vondrak 1665
Vondrak
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 40% vs Vondrak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 30% vs Vondrak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -3 · Vondrak -1
Cermak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vondrak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vondrak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 2.20 / Vondrak 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vondrak)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13030165
Cermak2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 91 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 119
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 66
Vondrak1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 70 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it69% 46 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak4wins
AwayVondrak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVondrak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak50%2 of 4
AwayVondrak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak4Vondrak6n = 10Vondrak took 6 of 10
S2Cermak4Vondrak6n = 10Vondrak took 6 of 10
S3Cermak3Vondrak7n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10
S4Cermak4Vondrak3n = 7Cermak took 4 of 7
S5Cermak2Vondrak1n = 3Cermak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakVondrakC − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.6−2.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakVondrakBasisWin rate · lifetime539 / 1051 vs 323 / 65851.3%49.1%539 / 1051 vs 323 / 658Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakCermak 2.20/Vondrak 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 09:00V. Cermak—116611122M. Vondrak—911117143
LAug 28 · 07:30V. Cermak—119981M. Vondrak—81111113
LAug 16 · 14:30V. Cermak—841191M. Vondrak—11117113
LJul 12 · 11:30V. Cermak—8690M. Vondrak—1111113
LJul 2 · 11:30V. Cermak—411741M. Vondrak—11411113
WJun 21 · 15:30V. Cermak—1111113M. Vondrak—9590
WJun 10 · 11:00V. Cermak—661111113M. Vondrak—11116992
LOct 14 · 14:00V. Cermak—81250M. Vondrak—1114113
WOct 9 · 10:00V. Cermak—11129113M. Vondrak—5101161
WJul 23 · 17:00V. Cermak—711711133M. Vondrak—114119112
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192
M. Vondrak10
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161WSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 07:30M. Vondrak1.401111113J. Stolfa2.759790WSep 4 · 06:30D. Hofman1.7311980M. Vondrak2.001311113WSep 1 · 12:58V. Vejvoda1.80118941M. Vondrak1.9181111113LSep 1 · 12:00V. Vejvoda1.831112113M. Vondrak1.8381060LSep 1 · 11:00J. Zuzanek1.911011511113M. Vondrak1.8012911562WSep 1 · 10:30M. Vondrak1.501111127113J. Tazler2.5053141172WAug 28 · 09:00M. Vondrak1.80911117143V. Cermak1.91116611122LAug 28 · 08:00M. Vondrak1.80911981M. Sychra1.9111911113
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