TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444172
Played Aug 17Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
211117118114––
Tomas Holik
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Tomas Holik below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 65 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Richard Wagner at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 1–0 Tomas Holik Tomas Holik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1630 vs Holik 1549
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Holik 0%
Wagner
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 40% vs Holik 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -2 · Holik -5
Holik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.61 / Holik 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Wagner)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12444172
Wagner1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 34 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Holik2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWagner1wins
AwayHolik0wins
Wagner leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWagnerHolikW − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.038.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 132 vs 77 / 16649.2%46.4%65 / 132 vs 77 / 166Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.739.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.61/Holik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 17 · 08:30R. Wagner—111311113T. Holik—7111371
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
T. Holik10
WSep 5 · 09:00M. Sedlak3.252690T. Holik1.331111113WSep 5 · 08:00T. Holik1.831191011223M. Sedlak1.83811125202LSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792LSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113LAug 17 · 12:59R. Wagner1.531111113T. Holik2.388680LAug 17 · 11:00F. Pusch1.731311113T. Holik2.0011670LAug 17 · 10:30T. Holik3.405790V. Cermak1.301111113LAug 17 · 08:58T. Holik1.8069130J. Zuzanek1.911111153LAug 17 · 08:30T. Holik1.917111371R. Wagner1.80111311113LAug 17 · 07:00T. Holik1.8378120F. Pusch1.831111143
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