TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444171
Played Aug 17Finished
Tomas Holik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71111131311711––
Richard Wagner
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Holik above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 84 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Holik 0–1 Richard Wagner Tomas Holik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Holik 1585 vs Wagner 1651
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 40% vs Wagner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 60% vs Wagner 40%
Holik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik -1 · Wagner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.91 / Wagner 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wagner)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12444171
Holik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Wagner1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 34 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHolik0wins
AwayWagner1wins
Wagner leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHolikWagnerH − WBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match38.046.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 163 vs 64 / 12947.2%49.6%77 / 163 vs 64 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerHolik 1.91/Wagner 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 17 · 08:30T. Holik—7111371R. Wagner—111311113
T. Holik10
WSep 5 · 09:00M. Sedlak3.252690T. Holik1.331111113WSep 5 · 08:00T. Holik1.831191011223M. Sedlak1.83811125202LSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792LSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113LAug 17 · 12:59R. Wagner1.531111113T. Holik2.388680LAug 17 · 12:00R. Wagner1.6121111113T. Holik2.20117841LAug 17 · 11:00F. Pusch1.731311113T. Holik2.0011670LAug 17 · 10:30T. Holik3.405790V. Cermak1.301111113LAug 17 · 08:58T. Holik1.8069130J. Zuzanek1.911111153LAug 17 · 07:00T. Holik1.8378120F. Pusch1.831111143
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WAug 17 · 12:59R. Wagner1.531111113T. Holik2.388680WAug 17 · 12:00R. Wagner1.6121111113T. Holik2.20117841
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