TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081756
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Svoboda
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115115––––
Radim Pavelka
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Svoboda above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jan Svoboda at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jan Svoboda 2–0 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1647 vs Pavelka 1567
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Pavelka 60%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Pavelka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +1 · Pavelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.36 / Pavelka 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081756
Svoboda1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Pavelka3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 79 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayPavelka0wins
Svoboda leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSvobodaPavelkaS − PBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.023.5+13.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 12 vs 446 / 88358.3%50.5%7 / 12 vs 446 / 883Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.36/Pavelka 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda—1111113R. Pavelka—8550
WSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda—81111113R. Pavelka—117471
J. Svoboda10
LSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471LSep 5 · 07:00J. Svoboda2.2010111081M. Sedlak1.6112412113WSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113WAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872LAug 30 · 07:00J. Svoboda1.803121161J. Stolfa1.91111013113LAug 30 · 06:00J. Hradecky1.531181011113J. Svoboda2.3851112792LAug 17 · 13:28M. Sobisek1.671111113J. Svoboda2.106430WAug 17 · 12:00J. Svoboda1.5091111113D. Tuma2.50115841
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191LSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760
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