TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13041665
Played Aug 30Finished
Jan Svoboda
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–3Last 5Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
31112101113611––
Jakub Stolfa
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:52 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Svoboda above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 77 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Svoboda 1–1 Jakub Stolfa Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1550 vs Stolfa 1691
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Stolfa 80%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 40% vs Stolfa 80%
Stolfa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Stolfa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.80 / Stolfa 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13041665
Svoboda1.80
40%won 2 of 5 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 2 of 5
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Stolfa1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog58% won 58 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back40% 23 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayStolfa1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSvobodaStolfaSvoboda − StolfaBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.046.5−5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 8 vs 179 / 34150%52.5%4 / 8 vs 179 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.80/Stolfa 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 30 · 07:00J. Svoboda—3121161J. Stolfa—111013113
WAug 17 · 10:00J. Svoboda—118711133J. Stolfa—911116112
J. Svoboda10
LSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550WSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471LSep 5 · 07:00J. Svoboda2.2010111081M. Sedlak1.6112412113WSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113WAug 30 · 08:58P. Budinsky2.208290J. Svoboda1.611111113WAug 30 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.73118611113P. Budinsky2.0071111872LAug 30 · 06:00J. Hradecky1.531181011113J. Svoboda2.3851112792LAug 17 · 13:28M. Sobisek1.671111113J. Svoboda2.106430WAug 17 · 12:00J. Svoboda1.5091111113D. Tuma2.50115841
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113
Upcoming Matches
J. Svoboda
J. Stolfa
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