TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063646
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411117117118––
Jiri Dedek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Dedek to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Jiri Dedek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jiri Dedek at 64.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 3–5 Jiri Dedek Jan Trefny has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dedek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Dedek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1564 vs Dedek 1556
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 80% vs Dedek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 60% vs Dedek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +3 · Dedek +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dedek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 2.63 / Dedek 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Dedek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063646
Trefny2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 21 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Dedek1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 147 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it98% 88 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it80% 110 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTrefny3wins
AwayDedek5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderDedek leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefny66.7%2 of 3
AwayDedek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny3Dedek5n = 8Dedek took 5 of 8
S2Trefny3Dedek5n = 8Dedek took 5 of 8
S3Trefny1Dedek7n = 8Dedek took 7 of 8
S4Trefny3Dedek2n = 5Trefny took 3 of 5
S5Trefny2Dedek1n = 3Trefny took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricTrefnyDedekT − DBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match34.638.6−4.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyDedekBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 86 vs 472 / 91247.7%51.8%41 / 86 vs 472 / 912Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DedekTrefny 2.63/Dedek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Dedek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 4 · 01:30J. Trefny—41111113J. Dedek—117781
LAug 31 · 14:30J. Trefny—7880J. Dedek—1111113
WAug 18 · 12:30J. Trefny—116411113J. Dedek—61111762
LAug 9 · 02:30J. Trefny—98110J. Dedek—1111133
LAug 3 · 15:00J. Trefny—9160J. Dedek—1111113
LJul 30 · 24:00J. Trefny—136991J. Dedek—111111113
WJul 26 · 02:30J. Trefny—111179113J. Dedek—49111152
LJul 15 · 15:30J. Trefny—91161172J. Dedek—119118113
J. Trefny10
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113WSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110
J. Dedek10
LSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91611681J. Dedek1.8011311113WSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781LSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100WSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661WSep 6 · 15:00J. Dedek1.3311311113F. Jungman3.25911931LSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110WSep 4 · 21:07M. Placek2.70711561J. Dedek1.4011611113LSep 4 · 20:00J. Dedek2.757680V. Postelt1.401111113
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