TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087435
Played Sep 7Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115911511––
Jiri Plachy
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:02 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 57.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 5–4 Jiri Plachy Jiri Plachy has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Trefny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1596 vs Plachy 1437
Trefny
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 80% vs Plachy 60%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 70% vs Plachy 50%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +3 · Plachy -1
Trefny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.73 / Plachy 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Trefny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087435
Trefny1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite51% won 22 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Plachy2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 173 of 417
Down 0–1, comes back22% 51 of 234
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeTrefny5wins
AwayPlachy4wins
1 of 9 to a deciderTrefny leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefny66.7%2 of 3
AwayPlachy50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny3Plachy6n = 9Plachy took 6 of 9
S2Trefny6Plachy3n = 9Trefny took 6 of 9
S3Trefny5Plachy4n = 9Trefny took 5 of 9
S4Trefny3Plachy4n = 7Plachy took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricTrefnyPlachyT − PBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match35.834.8+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 98 vs 745 / 160749%46.4%48 / 98 vs 745 / 1607Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.73/Plachy 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny—911951J. Plachy—11511113
WSep 3 · 22:30J. Trefny—811119113J. Plachy—11641182
LSep 1 · 07:30J. Trefny—561191J. Plachy—11118113
WAug 26 · 24:00J. Trefny—1111113J. Plachy—9670
LAug 18 · 10:30J. Trefny—1181081J. Plachy—61112113
WAug 18 · 07:00J. Trefny—11116113J. Plachy—891171
LJul 30 · 03:28J. Trefny—6960J. Plachy—1111113
WJul 30 · 01:30J. Trefny—61111113J. Plachy—118941
WJul 20 · 19:30J. Trefny—51111113J. Plachy—118851
J. Trefny10
LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113WSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110
J. Plachy10
LSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090LSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181WSep 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.801111113J. Prokupek1.916750LSep 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.7312660Y. Holovatiuk2.001411113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Postelt1.53108170J. Plachy2.381211193LSep 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.831111113J. Plachy1.838780LSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:30K. Darin2.505511101J. Plachy1.5011118123LSep 5 · 19:30J. Plachy1.7397111692L. Krok2.001111814113
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