TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077801
Played Sep 5Finished
Jiri Plachy
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9117111181614911
Lukas Krok
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Lukas Krok below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 16-14
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 107 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Krok at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 5–5 Lukas Krok Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:39What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Plachy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1473 vs Krok 1402
Plachy
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 40% vs Krok 20%
Plachy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 50% vs Krok 30%
Plachy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy +2 · Krok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Plachy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krok form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 1.73 / Krok 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Plachy)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077801
Plachy1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 143 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it97% 68 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it84% 101 of 120
Krok2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy5wins
AwayKrok5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy100%3 of 3
AwayKrok71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy3Krok7n = 10Krok took 7 of 10
S2Plachy5Krok5n = 10split evenly
S3Plachy3Krok7n = 10Krok took 7 of 10
S4Plachy5Krok1n = 6Plachy took 5 of 6
S5Plachy2Krok1n = 3Plachy took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyKrokP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.337.9−0.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyKrokBasisWin rate · lifetime741 / 1600 vs 169 / 36946.3%45.8%741 / 1600 vs 169 / 369Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlachyPlachy 1.73/Krok 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Plachy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 18:30J. Plachy—811414113L. Krok—115111232
WJul 19 · 18:30J. Plachy—13127113L. Krok—11101151
LMay 7 · 20:30J. Plachy—7550L. Krok—1111113
LApr 29 · 18:30J. Plachy—11660L. Krok—1311113
LApr 22 · 20:00J. Plachy—1611851L. Krok—18511113
LApr 4 · 19:00J. Plachy—11930L. Krok—1311113
WJun 17 · 19:30J. Plachy—7141111113L. Krok—11168792
LJun 10 · 21:00J. Plachy—712111192L. Krok—111474113
WJun 10 · 19:00J. Plachy—1111113L. Krok—6890
WJun 8 · 19:00J. Plachy—11119113L. Krok—671171
J. Plachy10
WSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181WSep 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.801111113J. Prokupek1.916750LSep 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.7312660Y. Holovatiuk2.001411113WSep 6 · 24:00V. Postelt1.53108170J. Plachy2.381211193LSep 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.831111113J. Plachy1.838780LSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:30K. Darin2.505511101J. Plachy1.5011118123WSep 5 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk2.0011461172J. Plachy1.73811117113
L. Krok10
WSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:00L. Krok1.611411113Y. Holovatiuk2.2012460LSep 5 · 18:00L. Krok1.83911551K. Darin1.8311711113WAug 22 · 21:05V. Nohejl1.619311101L. Krok2.2011116123LAug 22 · 20:00L. Krok2.25116741T. Kolenic1.5781111113LAug 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl2.001111113L. Krok1.735760LAug 22 · 18:00L. Krok2.00133991F. Briza1.73111111113LAug 21 · 21:28L. Krok1.831210581J. Prokupek1.83101211113WAug 21 · 20:30L. Krok2.631211113J. Prokupek1.4410970LAug 21 · 19:00L. Krok2.6310380J. Dedek1.441211113
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