TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12469513
Played Aug 22Finished
Lukas Krok
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611711411––
Tibor Kolenic
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeTibor Kolenic to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krok above · Tibor Kolenic below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Tibor Kolenic at 56.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krok 3–6 Tibor Kolenic Lukas Krok has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolenic
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Kolenic
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krok 1441 vs Kolenic 1578
Kolenic
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krok 20% vs Kolenic 80%
Kolenic
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krok 30% vs Kolenic 70%
Kolenic
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krok -3 · Kolenic +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kolenic) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrok 2.25 / Kolenic 1.57
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kolenic)+5.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12469513
Krok2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 61 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Kolenic1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 65 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it74% 53 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKrok3wins
AwayKolenic6wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKolenic leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrokn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolenic85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krok2Kolenic7n = 9Kolenic took 7 of 9
S2Krok7Kolenic2n = 9Krok took 7 of 9
S3Krok3Kolenic6n = 9Kolenic took 6 of 9
S4Krok4Kolenic4n = 8split evenly
S5Krok1Kolenic3n = 4Kolenic took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKrokKolenicKrok − KolenicBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match40.141.6−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokKolenicBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 371 vs 272 / 57645.8%47.2%170 / 371 vs 272 / 576Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolenicKrok 2.25/Kolenic 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Kolenic · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolenic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 19 · 18:30L. Krok—31111582T. Kolenic—113911113
WMay 28 · 20:30L. Krok—11148123T. Kolenic—61211101
WMay 17 · 20:58L. Krok—11911113T. Kolenic—911661
LMay 17 · 18:00L. Krok—511861T. Kolenic—11411113
WMay 14 · 21:30L. Krok—511118113T. Kolenic—11651182
LMay 14 · 20:30L. Krok—811411122T. Kolenic—117118143
LMay 8 · 18:00L. Krok—10111111112T. Kolenic—126135133
LApr 29 · 21:28L. Krok—711771T. Kolenic—11711113
LApr 29 · 20:30L. Krok—84160T. Kolenic—1111183
L. Krok10
WSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:00L. Krok1.611411113Y. Holovatiuk2.2012460WSep 5 · 19:30J. Plachy1.7397111692L. Krok2.001111814113LSep 5 · 18:00L. Krok1.83911551K. Darin1.8311711113WAug 22 · 21:05V. Nohejl1.619311101L. Krok2.2011116123LAug 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl2.001111113L. Krok1.735760LAug 22 · 18:00L. Krok2.00133991F. Briza1.73111111113LAug 21 · 21:28L. Krok1.831210581J. Prokupek1.83101211113WAug 21 · 20:30L. Krok2.631211113J. Prokupek1.4410970LAug 21 · 19:00L. Krok2.6310380J. Dedek1.441211113
T. Kolenic10
LAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek1.851111113T. Kolenic1.858480WAug 31 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.83117511113J. Dedek1.8371111792LAug 31 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.20118991J. Trefny1.6151111113LAug 31 · 14:00R. Pavelka1.28351111113T. Kolenic3.5011114672LAug 31 · 08:58M. Kolar1.221111113T. Kolenic4.009570LAug 31 · 08:30M. Kolar1.251113113T. Kolenic3.7541140WAug 31 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.75813813113M. Vedmoch1.401111111162LAug 31 · 06:30J. Plachy1.801111113T. Kolenic1.919660WAug 28 · 21:08F. Briza2.1581141152T. Kolenic1.63116116113WAug 28 · 20:30T. Kolenic1.671013811153F. Briza2.101211118132
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.