TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470439
Played Aug 22Finished
Lukas Krok
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311311911911––
Frantisek Briza
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:44 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Briza to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krok above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Frantisek Briza at 65.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krok 0–5 Frantisek Briza Lukas Krok has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Briza
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Briza
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krok 1480 vs Briza 1452
Krok
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krok 40% vs Briza 80%
Briza
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krok 50% vs Briza 70%
Briza
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krok -1 · Briza +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krok) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Briza form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrok 2.00 / Briza 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krok)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470439
Krok2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 61 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 42
Briza1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 69 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it72% 52 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKrok0wins
AwayBriza5wins
Briza leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrokn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayBriza100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krok0Briza5n = 5Briza took 5 of 5
S2Krok1Briza4n = 5Briza took 4 of 5
S3Krok0Briza5n = 5Briza took 5 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away480%
These 5 meetings
MetricKrokBrizaK − BBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match22.636.4−13.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 369 vs 386 / 83746.1%46.1%170 / 369 vs 386 / 837Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokKrok 2.00/Briza 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Briza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LDec 16 · 20:00L. Krok—313641F. Briza—111111113
LAug 11 · 20:00L. Krok—61180F. Briza—1113113
LJun 5 · 03:00L. Krok—6650F. Briza—1111113
LJun 4 · 23:30L. Krok—126100F. Briza—1411123
LMar 8 · 19:30L. Krok—5660F. Briza—1111113
L. Krok10
WSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:00L. Krok1.611411113Y. Holovatiuk2.2012460WSep 5 · 19:30J. Plachy1.7397111692L. Krok2.001111814113LSep 5 · 18:00L. Krok1.83911551K. Darin1.8311711113WAug 22 · 21:05V. Nohejl1.619311101L. Krok2.2011116123LAug 22 · 20:00L. Krok2.25116741T. Kolenic1.5781111113LAug 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl2.001111113L. Krok1.735760LAug 21 · 21:28L. Krok1.831210581J. Prokupek1.83101211113WAug 21 · 20:30L. Krok2.631211113J. Prokupek1.4410970LAug 21 · 19:00L. Krok2.6310380J. Dedek1.441211113
F. Briza10
WSep 6 · 17:30F. Briza1.8012711113J. Novotny1.911011651WSep 6 · 16:00A. Svoboda2.38111112392F. Briza1.53661411113WSep 6 · 15:00J. Novotny2.00411691F. Briza1.7311211113WSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:30F. Jungman1.571111113F. Briza2.257980WSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:00F. Briza2.006820F. Jungman1.731111113WSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 2 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.39971111113F. Briza2.5511112952WSep 2 · 16:30F. Briza2.2511111111113D. Horak1.5741381372
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