TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083470
Played Sep 6Finished
Jaroslav Novotny
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411112611911––
Frantisek Briza
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:29 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Novotny to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Novotny above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 65 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jaroslav Novotny at 64.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Novotny 5–2 Frantisek Briza Frantisek Briza has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:29What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Briza
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1441 vs Briza 1426
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Briza 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 70% vs Briza 50%
Novotny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Briza +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.00 / Briza 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novotny)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083470
Novotny2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 7 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Briza1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 76 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it98% 45 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 56 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeNovotny5wins
AwayBriza2wins
6 of 7 to a deciderNovotny leads 5–2, and 6 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBriza40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny2Briza5n = 7Briza took 5 of 7
S2Novotny6Briza1n = 7Novotny took 6 of 7
S3Novotny3Briza4n = 7Briza took 4 of 7
S4Novotny4Briza2n = 6Novotny took 4 of 6
S5Novotny4Briza2n = 6Novotny took 4 of 6
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home457%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricNovotnyBrizaN − BBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match44.642.9+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 151 vs 375 / 81951.7%45.8%78 / 151 vs 375 / 819Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 2.00/Briza 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Briza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJan 4 · 17:30J. Novotny—41161192F. Briza—117119113
WNov 11 · 18:03J. Novotny—3121111113F. Briza—11148472
WNov 11 · 17:30J. Novotny—1111312123F. Briza—541114102
WSep 22 · 16:30J. Novotny—1111113F. Briza—9880
LJan 27 · 17:30J. Novotny—61111562F. Briza—119411113
WJan 17 · 18:30J. Novotny—811611123F. Briza—114116102
WJan 17 · 15:00J. Novotny—9111112113F. Briza—118131082
J. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 17:30F. Briza1.8012711113J. Novotny1.911011651WSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721WSep 6 · 14:00A. Svoboda1.8391111662J. Novotny1.83117611113WAug 24 · 13:07A. Svoboda1.8361111682J. Novotny1.83116711113LAug 24 · 12:30R. Hasmanda2.00811611113J. Novotny1.7311911392WAug 24 · 11:30J. Novotny1.571111811113M. Stefek2.2531311642LAug 24 · 10:30A. Svoboda2.101111133J. Novotny1.6786110WAug 23 · 17:28R. Hasmanda2.00117111262J. Novotny1.73511714113LAug 23 · 16:30R. Hasmanda2.1091111113J. Novotny1.67118591WAug 23 · 15:30J. Novotny1.5011811113M. Barta2.50711851
F. Briza10
WSep 6 · 17:30F. Briza1.8012711113J. Novotny1.911011651WSep 6 · 16:00A. Svoboda2.38111112392F. Briza1.53661411113WSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:30F. Jungman1.571111113F. Briza2.257980WSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:00F. Briza2.006820F. Jungman1.731111113WSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 2 · 17:30Y. Holovatiuk1.39971111113F. Briza2.5511112952WSep 2 · 16:30F. Briza2.2511111111113D. Horak1.5741381372LSep 2 · 15:00F. Briza2.506650Y. Holovatiuk1.501111113
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