TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12481132
Played Aug 24Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181161311––––
Jaroslav Novotny
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:40 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Novotny to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Jaroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 60 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Jaroslav Novotny at 57.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 1–0 Jaroslav Novotny Jaroslav Novotny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1311 vs Novotny 1424
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Novotny 80%
Novotny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Novotny 70%
Novotny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -3 · Novotny +1
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.10 / Novotny 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Novotny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12481132
Svoboda2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 28 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back16% 8 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Novotny1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 27 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it60% 15 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSvoboda1wins
AwayNovotny0wins
Svoboda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSvobodaNovotnyS − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.025.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 243 vs 80 / 15747.7%51%116 / 243 vs 80 / 157Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnySvoboda 2.10/Novotny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 24 · 10:30A. Svoboda—1111133J. Novotny—86110
A. Svoboda10
WSep 7 · 03:28A. Svoboda1.531112113R. Hasmanda2.3821090WSep 7 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.731312113R. Hasmanda2.00111030WSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113WSep 7 · 24:00A. Svoboda2.001111123P. Bruzek1.7368100WSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113WSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:00A. Svoboda2.38111112392F. Briza1.53661411113WSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:00A. Svoboda1.8391111662J. Novotny1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862
J. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 17:30F. Briza1.8012711113J. Novotny1.911011651WSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:00J. Novotny2.00411691F. Briza1.7311211113WSep 6 · 14:00A. Svoboda1.8391111662J. Novotny1.83117611113WAug 24 · 13:07A. Svoboda1.8361111682J. Novotny1.83116711113LAug 24 · 12:30R. Hasmanda2.00811611113J. Novotny1.7311911392WAug 24 · 11:30J. Novotny1.571111811113M. Stefek2.2531311642WAug 23 · 17:28R. Hasmanda2.00117111262J. Novotny1.73511714113LAug 23 · 16:30R. Hasmanda2.1091111113J. Novotny1.67118591WAug 23 · 15:30J. Novotny1.5011811113M. Barta2.50711851
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