TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083513
Played Sep 6Finished
Jaroslav Novotny
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911118117112––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Novotny to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Novotny above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 70 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Jaroslav Novotny at 66.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Novotny 9–2 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:39What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-2 in 11
Novotny
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1435 vs Stefek 1332
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Stefek 0%
Novotny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 60% vs Stefek 10%
Novotny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -1 · Stefek -5
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Novotny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.50 / Stefek 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Novotny)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083513
Novotny1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 28 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it59% 16 of 27
Stefek2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 187 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 241
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny8wins
AwayStefek2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny80%4 of 5
AwayStefek20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S2Novotny4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S3Novotny6Stefek4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Novotny7Stefek2n = 9Novotny took 7 of 9
S5Novotny4Stefek1n = 5Novotny took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyStefekN − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.438.5+5.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 152 vs 569 / 119151.3%47.8%78 / 152 vs 569 / 1191Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.50/Stefek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 11:30J. Novotny—1111811113M. Stefek—31311642
LJul 31 · 15:30J. Novotny—75110M. Stefek—1111133
WJun 7 · 13:09J. Novotny—1011118113M. Stefek—12861152
WJun 7 · 11:30J. Novotny—11711113M. Stefek—811581
WJun 5 · 17:30J. Novotny—11117173M. Stefek—6411151
WJun 5 · 16:00J. Novotny—711916113M. Stefek—118111432
LJun 1 · 13:09J. Novotny—118151182M. Stefek—7111313113
WJun 1 · 10:00J. Novotny—11711113M. Stefek—511771
WMay 11 · 12:00J. Novotny—751111113M. Stefek—11113782
WMay 4 · 13:30J. Novotny—71111113M. Stefek—116951
J. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 17:30F. Briza1.8012711113J. Novotny1.911011651LSep 6 · 15:00J. Novotny2.00411691F. Briza1.7311211113WSep 6 · 14:00A. Svoboda1.8391111662J. Novotny1.83117611113WAug 24 · 13:07A. Svoboda1.8361111682J. Novotny1.83116711113LAug 24 · 12:30R. Hasmanda2.00811611113J. Novotny1.7311911392WAug 24 · 11:30J. Novotny1.571111811113M. Stefek2.2531311642LAug 24 · 10:30A. Svoboda2.101111133J. Novotny1.6786110WAug 23 · 17:28R. Hasmanda2.00117111262J. Novotny1.73511714113LAug 23 · 16:30R. Hasmanda2.1091111113J. Novotny1.67118591WAug 23 · 15:30J. Novotny1.5011811113M. Barta2.50711851
M. Stefek10
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172LSep 6 · 10:00M. Stefek1.446670M. Barta2.631111113LSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Novotny1.571111811113M. Stefek2.2531311642
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