TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082582
Played Sep 6Finished
Lubor Sulava
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210114611811117
Martin Stefek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLubor Sulava above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Martin Stefek at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Lubor Sulava 15–8 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:50What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Sulava
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulava 1438 vs Stefek 1425
Sulava
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulava 60% vs Stefek 20%
Sulava
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulava 80% vs Stefek 30%
Sulava
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulava -2 · Stefek -4
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulava 1.91 / Stefek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stefek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082582
Sulava1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 59 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Stefek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 125 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it77% 91 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulava6wins
AwayStefek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSulava leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulava80%4 of 5
AwayStefek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulava5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S2Sulava6Stefek4n = 10Sulava took 6 of 10
S3Sulava5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S4Sulava3Stefek5n = 8Stefek took 5 of 8
S5Sulava3Stefek0n = 3Sulava took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulavaStefekSulava − StefekBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.035.9+2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulavaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 967 vs 571 / 118849.6%48.1%480 / 967 vs 571 / 1188Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekSulava 1.91/Stefek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sulava won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 7 · 10:00L. Sulava—11111111113M. Stefek—13661332
LMay 5 · 02:30L. Sulava—112481M. Stefek—21111113
LMar 26 · 03:30L. Sulava—981171M. Stefek—11115113
LMar 12 · 01:00L. Sulava—411861M. Stefek—11911113
LFeb 28 · 10:30L. Sulava—711991M. Stefek—11511113
WFeb 28 · 07:30L. Sulava—11411113M. Stefek—511651
WFeb 25 · 23:30L. Sulava—1111113M. Stefek—7980
WFeb 20 · 23:30L. Sulava—125811103M. Stefek—101111492
WFeb 20 · 16:00L. Sulava—1114113M. Stefek—71250
WFeb 15 · 08:00L. Sulava—5111011113M. Stefek—11712692
L. Sulava10
WSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961WSep 7 · 02:00P. Bruzek1.9198111252L. Sulava1.801111610113WSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113LSep 6 · 22:00R. Hasmanda1.441211113L. Sulava2.6310580LSep 6 · 13:30M. Barta1.75911911113L. Sulava1.9511711952WSep 6 · 12:30M. Barta1.9177111172L. Sulava1.80111165113LSep 6 · 10:30J. Briska1.73971311113L. Sulava2.00111111342LAug 31 · 17:30L. Sulava1.73411111162M. Barta2.00118813113WAug 31 · 16:30M. Syroha2.501091351L. Sulava1.50121111113
M. Stefek10
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 10:00M. Stefek1.446670M. Barta2.631111113LSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban1.80111112113M. Stefek1.91951471
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