TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071872
Played Sep 5Finished
Roman Urban
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191151214117––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Urban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Urban above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 80 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Roman Urban at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Roman Urban 5–2 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Urban
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1472 vs Stefek 1437
Urban
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Stefek 40%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Stefek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +1 · Stefek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.80 / Stefek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urban)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071872
Urban1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 37 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Stefek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 186 of 428
Down 0–1, comes back23% 55 of 240
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeUrban5wins
AwayStefek2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderUrban leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban83.3%5 of 6
AwayStefekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban6Stefek1n = 7Urban took 6 of 7
S2Urban3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S3Urban3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S4Urban3Stefek1n = 4Urban took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricUrbanStefekU − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match36.131.9+4.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 134 vs 571 / 118653%48.2%71 / 134 vs 571 / 1186Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.80/Stefek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban—111112113M. Stefek—951471
LAug 29 · 24:00R. Urban—4890M. Stefek—1111113
LMay 22 · 20:00R. Urban—114831M. Stefek—61111113
WMay 9 · 24:30R. Urban—12911113M. Stefek—1011861
WApr 29 · 24:00R. Urban—1112113M. Stefek—71070
WApr 4 · 02:30R. Urban—129811113M. Stefek—101111562
WJan 24 · 03:30R. Urban—1111113M. Stefek—3740
R. Urban10
LSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240LSep 5 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.3611711113R. Urban3.00511711WSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172LSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352WAug 29 · 02:59P. Bruzek2.5011118822R. Urban1.50751111113LAug 29 · 02:00R. Urban1.7311101371J. Didi2.0081215113WAug 29 · 01:00R. Urban1.731111113T. Andrle2.002260LAug 29 · 24:00M. Stefek2.381111113R. Urban1.534890WAug 28 · 22:30P. Bruzek1.91118561R. Urban1.8071111113LAug 16 · 03:29V. Dolezal2.1011115113R. Urban1.67871131
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113WAug 29 · 24:00M. Stefek2.381111113R. Urban1.534890
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.