TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071806
Played Sep 4Finished
Roman Urban
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210116811117
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRoman Urban above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Roman Urban 3–4 Vaclav Dolezal Roman Urban has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:58What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dolezal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1449 vs Dolezal 1484
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 40% vs Dolezal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Dolezal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -1 · Dolezal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dolezal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.83 / Dolezal 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dolezal)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071806
Urban1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Dolezal1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeUrban3wins
AwayDolezal4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderDolezal leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban75%3 of 4
AwayDolezal100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban4Dolezal3n = 7Urban took 4 of 7
S2Urban4Dolezal3n = 7Urban took 4 of 7
S3Urban5Dolezal2n = 7Urban took 5 of 7
S4Urban1Dolezal4n = 5Dolezal took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricUrbanDolezalU − DBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match35.636.4−0.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 132 vs 369 / 75052.3%49.2%69 / 132 vs 369 / 750Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalUrban 1.83/Dolezal 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 16 · 03:29R. Urban—871131V. Dolezal—11115113
LAug 16 · 02:30R. Urban—761191V. Dolezal—11116113
WJun 14 · 01:30R. Urban—1212123V. Dolezal—1010100
LMay 16 · 24:30R. Urban—961161V. Dolezal—11117113
LMay 9 · 02:59R. Urban—11115882V. Dolezal—881111113
WMay 8 · 22:30R. Urban—1113133V. Dolezal—711110
WFeb 1 · 24:30R. Urban—11116113V. Dolezal—591151
R. Urban10
LSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240LSep 5 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.3611711113R. Urban3.00511711WSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban1.80111112113M. Stefek1.91951471LSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352WAug 29 · 02:59P. Bruzek2.5011118822R. Urban1.50751111113LAug 29 · 02:00R. Urban1.7311101371J. Didi2.0081215113WAug 29 · 01:00R. Urban1.731111113T. Andrle2.002260LAug 29 · 24:00M. Stefek2.381111113R. Urban1.534890WAug 28 · 22:30P. Bruzek1.91118561R. Urban1.8071111113LAug 16 · 03:29V. Dolezal2.1011115113R. Urban1.67871131
V. Dolezal10
LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek2.201191011123V. Dolezal1.61911129102LSep 4 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.5371114882J. Didi2.381141211113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda1.839111413123V. Dolezal1.831151611102WSep 3 · 03:04V. Dolezal1.2011139113J. Didi4.335111151WAug 16 · 03:29V. Dolezal2.1011115113R. Urban1.67871131
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