TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070692
Played Sep 4Finished
Ondrej Kucirek
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214117511113115
Roman Urban
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kucirek to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kucirek above · Roman Urban below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Ondrej Kucirek at 63.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kucirek 5–1 Roman Urban Roman Urban has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kucirek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Kucirek
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucirek 1401 vs Urban 1462
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucirek 60% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucirek 50% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucirek -1 · Urban +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kucirek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucirek 1.33 / Urban 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 28%
Edge (Kucirek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070692
Kucirek1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Urban3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 10 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKucirek5wins
AwayUrban1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKucirek leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucirek100%4 of 4
AwayUrbann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucirek4Urban2n = 6Kucirek took 4 of 6
S2Kucirek4Urban2n = 6Kucirek took 4 of 6
S3Kucirek5Urban1n = 6Kucirek took 5 of 6
S4Kucirek3Urban1n = 4Kucirek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKucirekUrbanK − UBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.332.3+8.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucirekUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 442 vs 69 / 13149.3%52.7%218 / 442 vs 69 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucirekKucirek 1.33/Urban 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Kucirek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kucirek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJun 13 · 01:30O. Kucirek—1111113R. Urban—4650
WApr 18 · 02:58O. Kucirek—11711143R. Urban—6114121
WApr 17 · 22:30O. Kucirek—31111143R. Urban—1198121
LMar 21 · 24:00O. Kucirek—511111162R. Urban—116136113
WFeb 19 · 01:00O. Kucirek—1111113R. Urban—6160
WFeb 12 · 03:00O. Kucirek—118119113R. Urban—91161192
O. Kucirek10
WSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240WSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:00A. Svoboda1.83410100O. Kucirek1.831112123WSep 4 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.831111113M. Stefek1.837750LSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:30V. Dolezal1.7311125752O. Kucirek2.006101111113WSep 2 · 19:30O. Kucirek2.2513111011113R. Bartunek1.5715912782LSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 02:00J. Didi1.8311511113O. Kucirek1.83611661
R. Urban10
LSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240LSep 5 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.3611711113R. Urban3.00511711WSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban1.80111112113M. Stefek1.91951471WSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WAug 29 · 02:59P. Bruzek2.5011118822R. Urban1.50751111113LAug 29 · 02:00R. Urban1.7311101371J. Didi2.0081215113WAug 29 · 01:00R. Urban1.731111113T. Andrle2.002260LAug 29 · 24:00M. Stefek2.381111113R. Urban1.534890WAug 28 · 22:30P. Bruzek1.91118561R. Urban1.8071111113LAug 16 · 03:29V. Dolezal2.1011115113R. Urban1.67871131
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