TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071846
Played Sep 5Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214911113711––
Ondrej Kucirek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Ondrej Kucirek below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 60.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 16–8 Ondrej Kucirek Ondrej Kucirek has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:58What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dolezal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Dolezal
Wrong
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1451 vs Kucirek 1462
Kucirek
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 40% vs Kucirek 80%
Kucirek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 40% vs Kucirek 70%
Kucirek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +1 · Kucirek +3
Kucirek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucirek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 1.73 / Kucirek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Dolezal)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071846
Dolezal1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 136 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 100 of 125
Kucirek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 50 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal9wins
AwayKucirek1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDolezal leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezal85.7%6 of 7
AwayKucirek0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal7Kucirek3n = 10Dolezal took 7 of 10
S2Dolezal7Kucirek3n = 10Dolezal took 7 of 10
S3Dolezal6Kucirek4n = 10Dolezal took 6 of 10
S4Dolezal5Kucirek4n = 9Dolezal took 5 of 9
S5Dolezal4Kucirek1n = 5Dolezal took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalKucirekD − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.638.2+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalKucirekBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 753 vs 219 / 44049.1%49.8%370 / 753 vs 219 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalDolezal 1.73/Kucirek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kucirek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 20:30V. Dolezal—11125752O. Kucirek—6101111113
WJun 12 · 02:58V. Dolezal—1111113O. Kucirek—8590
WJun 12 · 02:30V. Dolezal—11117113O. Kucirek—951171
WMay 28 · 02:58V. Dolezal—11118113O. Kucirek—691111
WMay 28 · 24:30V. Dolezal—11911113O. Kucirek—711381
WMay 26 · 24:00V. Dolezal—134115113O. Kucirek—111181152
WMay 18 · 18:30V. Dolezal—111148113O. Kucirek—68111152
WMay 13 · 18:30V. Dolezal—711116123O. Kucirek—118911102
WApr 3 · 02:00V. Dolezal—81211113O. Kucirek—1110831
WMar 30 · 23:30V. Dolezal—671413123O. Kucirek—11111211102
V. Dolezal10
LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek2.201191011123V. Dolezal1.61911129102LSep 4 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.5371114882J. Didi2.381141211113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda1.839111413123V. Dolezal1.831151611102WSep 3 · 03:04V. Dolezal1.2011139113J. Didi4.335111151LSep 3 · 01:30V. Dolezal2.75981141O. Vitrovyj1.4011114113
O. Kucirek10
WSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240WSep 5 · 01:00A. Svoboda1.83410100O. Kucirek1.831112123WSep 4 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.831111113M. Stefek1.837750WSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352LSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:30V. Dolezal1.7311125752O. Kucirek2.006101111113WSep 2 · 19:30O. Kucirek2.2513111011113R. Bartunek1.5715912782LSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 02:00J. Didi1.8311511113O. Kucirek1.83611661
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