TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059710
Played Sep 3Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811114411––
Oleg Vitrovyj
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeOleg Vitrovyj to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Oleg Vitrovyj below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 69 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Oleg Vitrovyj at 66.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 19–23 Oleg Vitrovyj Vaclav Dolezal has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:34What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vitrovyj
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-23 in 42
Vitrovyj
Correct
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1496 vs Vitrovyj 1438
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 40% vs Vitrovyj 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 60% vs Vitrovyj 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +1 · Vitrovyj +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Vitrovyj)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitrovyj form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.75 / Vitrovyj 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Vitrovyj)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059710
Dolezal2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 47
Vitrovyj1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 114 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it74% 82 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal1wins
AwayVitrovyj9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVitrovyj leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezaln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVitrovyj88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal1Vitrovyj9n = 10Vitrovyj took 9 of 10
S2Dolezal3Vitrovyj7n = 10Vitrovyj took 7 of 10
S3Dolezal4Vitrovyj6n = 10Vitrovyj took 6 of 10
S4Dolezal1Vitrovyj4n = 5Vitrovyj took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalVitrovyjD − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match30.137.8−7.7per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalVitrovyjBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 744 vs 351 / 66649.3%52.7%367 / 744 vs 351 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitrovyjDolezal 2.75/Vitrovyj 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Vitrovyj · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vitrovyj won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 23:30V. Dolezal—112891O. Vitrovyj—91111113
LAug 19 · 23:30V. Dolezal—5950O. Vitrovyj—1111113
LJul 6 · 24:00V. Dolezal—76110O. Vitrovyj—1111133
LJun 29 · 03:30V. Dolezal—9790O. Vitrovyj—1111113
LJun 29 · 01:30V. Dolezal—811111592O. Vitrovyj—117417113
LJun 22 · 01:30V. Dolezal—8790O. Vitrovyj—1111113
LJun 15 · 24:00V. Dolezal—3540O. Vitrovyj—1111113
LJun 11 · 23:30V. Dolezal—8101241O. Vitrovyj—111210113
WMay 26 · 02:00V. Dolezal—101111113O. Vitrovyj—129551
LMay 25 · 01:30V. Dolezal—21111662O. Vitrovyj—114711113
V. Dolezal10
LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek2.201191011123V. Dolezal1.61911129102LSep 4 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.5371114882J. Didi2.381141211113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda1.839111413123V. Dolezal1.831151611102WSep 3 · 03:04V. Dolezal1.2011139113J. Didi4.335111151
O. Vitrovyj10
WSep 3 · 03:28O. Vitrovyj1.5011118113R. Hasmanda2.50851161WSep 3 · 02:30O. Vitrovyj1.731111133J. Didi2.0019110WSep 3 · 24:00O. Vitrovyj1.441311113P. Bruzek2.6311580LSep 2 · 23:00R. Hasmanda2.6381111113O. Vitrovyj1.44117781LSep 1 · 03:30O. Vitrovyj2.55811691R. Bartunek1.4511611113WSep 1 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.30111090O. Vitrovyj3.401312113LSep 1 · 01:00J. Didi2.25112711113O. Vitrovyj1.5731111772LAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:00O. Vitrovyj1.571111113O. Kucirek2.255990WAug 31 · 03:28O. Vitrovyj1.67119117113M. Stefek2.1031181182
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