TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071805
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11991110121191210
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 104 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 58.1%
104 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 17–32 Vaclav Dolezal Martin Stefek has won 17 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:59What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dolezal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-32 in 49
Dolezal
Wrong
gap of 15 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1470 vs Dolezal 1473
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Dolezal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Dolezal 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Dolezal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.20 / Dolezal 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Dolezal)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071805
Stefek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 186 of 428
Down 0–1, comes back23% 55 of 240
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 144
Dolezal1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 136 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 100 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwayDolezal5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek71.4%5 of 7
AwayDolezal100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek7Dolezal3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S2Stefek4Dolezal6n = 10Dolezal took 6 of 10
S3Stefek5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek2Dolezal4n = 6Dolezal took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekDolezalS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.937.2−2.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime570 / 1182 vs 368 / 74948.2%49.1%570 / 1182 vs 368 / 749Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalStefek 2.20/Dolezal 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek—1191011123V. Dolezal—911129102
LAug 31 · 02:30M. Stefek—1181571V. Dolezal—91117113
LAug 28 · 03:28M. Stefek—116761V. Dolezal—71111113
LAug 28 · 01:30M. Stefek—571151V. Dolezal—11118113
WAug 24 · 17:30M. Stefek—121014113V. Dolezal—10121271
WAug 24 · 14:30M. Stefek—1113113V. Dolezal—91190
WAug 23 · 12:30M. Stefek—1111113V. Dolezal—9650
LAug 23 · 07:30M. Stefek—7360V. Dolezal—1111113
WAug 21 · 01:00M. Stefek—1211113V. Dolezal—10990
LAug 12 · 09:30M. Stefek—711681V. Dolezal—11811113
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
V. Dolezal10
LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113LSep 4 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.5371114882J. Didi2.381141211113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda1.839111413123V. Dolezal1.831151611102WSep 3 · 03:04V. Dolezal1.2011139113J. Didi4.335111151LSep 3 · 01:30V. Dolezal2.75981141O. Vitrovyj1.4011114113
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