TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13030389
Played Aug 29Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118119––––
Roman Urban
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:21 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Urban to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Roman Urban below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 54 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Roman Urban at 61.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 1–4 Roman Urban Martin Stefek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Urban
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1527 vs Urban 1448
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 70% vs Urban 40%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Urban +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.38 / Urban 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Urban)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13030389
Stefek2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 184 of 429
Down 0–1, comes back23% 54 of 240
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 144
Urban1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 36 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStefek1wins
AwayUrban4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderUrban leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayUrban80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek0Urban5n = 5Urban took 5 of 5
S2Stefek3Urban2n = 5Stefek took 3 of 5
S3Stefek2Urban3n = 5Urban took 3 of 5
S4Stefek1Urban2n = 3Urban took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricStefekUrbanS − UBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match31.037.4−6.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime572 / 1190 vs 67 / 12748.1%52.8%572 / 1190 vs 67 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanStefek 2.38/Urban 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WMay 22 · 20:00M. Stefek—61111113R. Urban—114831
LMay 9 · 24:30M. Stefek—1011861R. Urban—12911113
LApr 29 · 24:00M. Stefek—71070R. Urban—1112113
LApr 4 · 02:30M. Stefek—101111562R. Urban—129811113
LJan 24 · 03:30M. Stefek—3740R. Urban—1111113
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
R. Urban10
LSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240LSep 5 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.3611711113R. Urban3.00511711WSep 5 · 24:30R. Urban1.80111112113M. Stefek1.91951471WSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172LSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352WAug 29 · 02:59P. Bruzek2.5011118822R. Urban1.50751111113LAug 29 · 02:00R. Urban1.7311101371J. Didi2.0081215113WAug 29 · 01:00R. Urban1.731111113T. Andrle2.002260WAug 28 · 22:30P. Bruzek1.91118561R. Urban1.8071111113LAug 16 · 03:29V. Dolezal2.1011115113R. Urban1.67871131
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.