TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047791
Played Aug 31Finished
Milan Kolar
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141311114––––
Tibor Kolenic
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Tibor Kolenic below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 54 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Milan Kolar at 63.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 8–3 Tibor Kolenic Tibor Kolenic has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:21What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Kolar
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1473 vs Kolenic 1530
Kolenic
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 20% vs Kolenic 60%
Kolenic
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 40% vs Kolenic 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar -3 · Kolenic +1
Kolar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kolar) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 1.25 / Kolenic 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Kolar)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047791
Kolar1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 130 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it88% 65 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it76% 99 of 130
Kolenic3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 39 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar8wins
AwayKolenic2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolar leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar87.5%7 of 8
AwayKolenicn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar8Kolenic2n = 10Kolar took 8 of 10
S2Kolar8Kolenic2n = 10Kolar took 8 of 10
S3Kolar5Kolenic5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolar5Kolenic0n = 5Kolar took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarKolenicKolar − KolenicBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.527.1+9.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarKolenicBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 803 vs 273 / 58250.3%46.9%404 / 803 vs 273 / 582Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolarKolar 1.25/Kolenic 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 4 · 19:00M. Kolar—1111113T. Kolenic—8530
WMay 21 · 21:00M. Kolar—91111113T. Kolenic—115711
WMay 21 · 20:30M. Kolar—11117113T. Kolenic—531171
WAug 23 · 16:30M. Kolar—1111113T. Kolenic—9770
WJul 19 · 17:30M. Kolar—1111113T. Kolenic—9750
LJul 19 · 14:00M. Kolar—11891192T. Kolenic—611116113
WJul 1 · 03:00M. Kolar—11118113T. Kolenic—871131
LJul 1 · 02:30M. Kolar—10590T. Kolenic—1211113
WMay 30 · 12:30M. Kolar—11115113T. Kolenic—991131
WMay 14 · 13:02M. Kolar—1111113T. Kolenic—8850
M. Kolar10
WSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181WSep 4 · 20:30M. Kolar2.00911611123M. Placek1.73116119102WSep 4 · 19:00M. Kolar2.2511811113V. Postelt1.57711291WSep 4 · 18:00J. Dedek1.9110115101M. Kolar1.8012311123WSep 4 · 13:30D. Parhomenko1.541010111292M. Kolar2.181212710113WSep 4 · 12:30M. Kolar1.301111113J. Steffan3.408780WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971LSep 4 · 10:00D. Parhomenko1.73111011113M. Kolar2.00412851LSep 3 · 13:02J. Prokupek2.0091111113M. Kolar1.73117431LSep 3 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0015104111J. Prokupek1.73131211133
T. Kolenic10
LAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek1.851111113T. Kolenic1.858480WAug 31 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.83117511113J. Dedek1.8371111792LAug 31 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.20118991J. Trefny1.6151111113LAug 31 · 14:00R. Pavelka1.28351111113T. Kolenic3.5011114672LAug 31 · 08:58M. Kolar1.221111113T. Kolenic4.009570WAug 31 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.75813813113M. Vedmoch1.401111111162LAug 31 · 06:30J. Plachy1.801111113T. Kolenic1.919660WAug 28 · 21:08F. Briza2.1581141152T. Kolenic1.63116116113WAug 28 · 20:30T. Kolenic1.671013811153F. Briza2.101211118132LAug 28 · 19:00T. Kolenic2.25671161Y. Holovatiuk1.5711112113
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