TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047799
Played Aug 31Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311511114116117
Tibor Kolenic
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Tibor Kolenic below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 80 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 69.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 37–12 Tibor Kolenic Tibor Kolenic has won 12 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-12 in 49
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 25 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1608 vs Kolenic 1485
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Kolenic 40%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 80% vs Kolenic 40%
Pavelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Kolenic -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.28 / Kolenic 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Pavelka)+6.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047799
Pavelka1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 102 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Kolenic3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 39 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka8wins
AwayKolenic2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka83.3%5 of 6
AwayKolenic25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka6Kolenic4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S2Pavelka6Kolenic4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S3Pavelka7Kolenic3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S4Pavelka4Kolenic3n = 7Pavelka took 4 of 7
S5Pavelka4Kolenic1n = 5Pavelka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaKolenicP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.132.4+7.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaKolenicBasisWin rate · lifetime453 / 897 vs 273 / 58450.5%46.8%453 / 897 vs 273 / 584Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.28/Kolenic 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 19 · 20:30R. Pavelka—711811123T. Kolenic—113117102
WDec 30 · 08:30R. Pavelka—1111113T. Kolenic—5520
WDec 2 · 18:09R. Pavelka—1111113T. Kolenic—3830
WDec 2 · 17:30R. Pavelka—871111113T. Kolenic—11115792
WOct 7 · 18:00R. Pavelka—1111113T. Kolenic—7820
WOct 5 · 21:30R. Pavelka—115911113T. Kolenic—61111492
WOct 5 · 20:00R. Pavelka—811148113T. Kolenic—117121142
WOct 2 · 21:00R. Pavelka—11311113T. Kolenic—611451
LOct 2 · 20:00R. Pavelka—11119282T. Kolenic—771111113
LSep 28 · 18:30R. Pavelka—561171T. Kolenic—11115103
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191
T. Kolenic10
LAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek1.851111113T. Kolenic1.858480WAug 31 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.83117511113J. Dedek1.8371111792LAug 31 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.20118991J. Trefny1.6151111113LAug 31 · 08:58M. Kolar1.221111113T. Kolenic4.009570LAug 31 · 08:30M. Kolar1.251113113T. Kolenic3.7541140WAug 31 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.75813813113M. Vedmoch1.401111111162LAug 31 · 06:30J. Plachy1.801111113T. Kolenic1.919660WAug 28 · 21:08F. Briza2.1581141152T. Kolenic1.63116116113WAug 28 · 20:30T. Kolenic1.671013811153F. Briza2.101211118132LAug 28 · 19:00T. Kolenic2.25671161Y. Holovatiuk1.5711112113
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