TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042304
Played Aug 30Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511511––––
Tomas Regner
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Tomas Regner at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 17–20 Tomas Regner Martin Stefek has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Regner
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1511 vs Regner 1501
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Regner 60%
Regner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Regner 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Regner -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.91 / Regner 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefek)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042304
Stefek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 185 of 426
Down 0–1, comes back23% 54 of 238
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 142
Regner1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 98 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it74% 66 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayRegner7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek40%2 of 5
AwayRegner80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S4Stefek4Regner5n = 9Regner took 5 of 9
S5Stefek2Regner5n = 7Regner took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekRegnerS − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.943.2−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime570 / 1186 vs 483 / 97048.1%49.8%570 / 1186 vs 483 / 970Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.91/Regner 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 16:00M. Stefek—911111113T. Regner—11116482
LAug 23 · 13:30M. Stefek—5580T. Regner—1111113
LAug 23 · 10:30M. Stefek—11651162T. Regner—811118113
WAug 23 · 09:00M. Stefek—11115113T. Regner—341171
LAug 23 · 06:00M. Stefek—101113842T. Regner—1261111113
LAug 20 · 20:58M. Stefek—11116582T. Regner—591111113
LAug 20 · 19:30M. Stefek—12119462T. Regner—1091111113
WAug 9 · 08:58M. Stefek—118117113T. Regner—81171192
LAug 9 · 07:30M. Stefek—611851T. Regner—11711113
LAug 8 · 19:30M. Stefek—137111122T. Regner—151184113
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
T. Regner10
LSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:30T. Regner2.008560R. Bartunek1.731111113LSep 1 · 24:30O. Kucirek1.7311811113T. Regner2.00511651WAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:30T. Regner2.2511113113J. Didi1.57921171LAug 31 · 21:00T. Regner1.57111112862O. Fejtek2.259131011113LAug 31 · 20:30T. Regner2.257860J. Didi1.571111113WAug 31 · 19:00T. Regner2.201111113O. Fejtek1.617270LAug 31 · 18:30J. Steffan1.5711115113T. Regner2.25771191LAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113
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