TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13048168
Played Sep 1Finished
Ondrej Kucirek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811116115––
Tomas Regner
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kucirek to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kucirek above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 68 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Ondrej Kucirek at 55.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kucirek 8–5 Tomas Regner Tomas Regner has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:17What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kucirek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Kucirek
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucirek 1389 vs Regner 1495
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucirek 20% vs Regner 60%
Regner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucirek 30% vs Regner 50%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucirek +1 · Regner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kucirek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucirek form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucirek 1.73 / Regner 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Regner)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13048168
Kucirek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 55 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it87% 33 of 38
Regner2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 125 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back28% 39 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKucirek5wins
AwayRegner5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucirek50%2 of 4
AwayRegner50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucirek4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S2Kucirek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Kucirek6Regner4n = 10Kucirek took 6 of 10
S4Kucirek4Regner4n = 8split evenly
S5Kucirek2Regner2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKucirekRegnerK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.937.3+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucirekRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 439 vs 486 / 97048.8%50.1%214 / 439 vs 486 / 970Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucirekKucirek 1.73/Regner 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kucirek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kucirek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 3 · 02:30O. Kucirek—51111113T. Regner—119631
WJun 25 · 01:00O. Kucirek—91111113T. Regner—117691
WJun 1 · 22:30O. Kucirek—117138113T. Regner—711111132
LMay 28 · 01:30O. Kucirek—11511732T. Regner—711911113
LMay 11 · 22:00O. Kucirek—1110911102T. Regner—312113123
LApr 10 · 01:00O. Kucirek—10880T. Regner—1211113
LMar 24 · 03:00O. Kucirek—411981T. Regner—11211113
LMar 19 · 24:00O. Kucirek—1271151T. Regner—14119113
WDec 28 · 23:00O. Kucirek—1113113T. Regner—71170
WSep 12 · 18:00O. Kucirek—8111211113T. Regner—11714252
O. Kucirek10
WSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240WSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:00A. Svoboda1.83410100O. Kucirek1.831112123WSep 4 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.831111113M. Stefek1.837750WSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352LSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:30V. Dolezal1.7311125752O. Kucirek2.006101111113WSep 2 · 19:30O. Kucirek2.2513111011113R. Bartunek1.5715912782LSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113
T. Regner10
LSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:30T. Regner2.008560R. Bartunek1.731111113WAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:30T. Regner2.2511113113J. Didi1.57921171LAug 31 · 21:00T. Regner1.57111112862O. Fejtek2.259131011113LAug 31 · 20:30T. Regner2.257860J. Didi1.571111113WAug 31 · 19:00T. Regner2.201111113O. Fejtek1.617270LAug 31 · 18:30J. Steffan1.5711115113T. Regner2.25771191LAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:00M. Stefek1.917550T. Regner1.801111113
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