TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444270
Played Aug 18Finished
Martin Novak
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112711115119––
Oleg Vitrovyj
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:43 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Novak to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Novak above · Oleg Vitrovyj below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 67 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Martin Novak at 62.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Martin Novak 3–1 Oleg Vitrovyj Oleg Vitrovyj has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:43What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Novak
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1498 vs Vitrovyj 1482
Novak
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 0% vs Vitrovyj 60%
Vitrovyj
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 20% vs Vitrovyj 50%
Vitrovyj
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -5 · Vitrovyj +2
Novak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitrovyj form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.57 / Vitrovyj 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Novak)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12444270
Novak1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 18 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Vitrovyj2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 41 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeNovak3wins
AwayVitrovyj1wins
Novak leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak100%3 of 3
AwayVitrovyjn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak3Vitrovyj1n = 4Novak took 3 of 4
S2Novak3Vitrovyj1n = 4Novak took 3 of 4
S3Novak2Vitrovyj2n = 4split evenly
S4Novak2Vitrovyj1n = 3Novak took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricNovakVitrovyjN − VBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.834.8+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakVitrovyjBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 50 vs 345 / 64964%53.2%32 / 50 vs 345 / 649Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.57/Vitrovyj 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 15 · 01:30M. Novak—101311151O. Vitrovyj—12159173
WJul 1 · 03:00M. Novak—11115113O. Vitrovyj—981161
WJul 1 · 01:00M. Novak—111110113O. Vitrovyj—891261
WMay 9 · 02:30M. Novak—1111113O. Vitrovyj—6920
M. Novak10
LSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961LSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113LSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:30R. Hasmanda1.8311811113M. Novak1.83411661WSep 6 · 22:30M. Novak1.571111113P. Bruzek2.256630LAug 18 · 24:30J. Didi1.57111188113M. Novak2.2597111182LAug 17 · 23:30R. Bartunek1.441111113M. Novak2.635560LAug 17 · 22:30M. Novak1.806940T. Regner1.911111113LJul 23 · 02:59O. Kucirek1.91512911113M. Novak1.80111011662LJul 23 · 02:00M. Novak1.618840R. Hasmanda2.201111113
O. Vitrovyj10
WSep 3 · 03:28O. Vitrovyj1.5011118113R. Hasmanda2.50851161WSep 3 · 02:30O. Vitrovyj1.731111133J. Didi2.0019110WSep 3 · 01:30V. Dolezal2.75981141O. Vitrovyj1.4011114113WSep 3 · 24:00O. Vitrovyj1.441311113P. Bruzek2.6311580LSep 2 · 23:00R. Hasmanda2.6381111113O. Vitrovyj1.44117781LSep 1 · 03:30O. Vitrovyj2.55811691R. Bartunek1.4511611113WSep 1 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.30111090O. Vitrovyj3.401312113LSep 1 · 01:00J. Didi2.25112711113O. Vitrovyj1.5731111772LAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:00O. Vitrovyj1.571111113O. Kucirek2.255990
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