TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12362460
Played Aug 5Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111171214116211
Valerii Hel
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 91 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Valerii Hel at 70.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 5–7 Valerii Hel Orest Melnik has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Hel
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1256 vs Hel 1359
Hel
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 20% vs Hel 80%
Hel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 30% vs Hel 70%
Hel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Hel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Hel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 2.50 / Hel 1.50
Signal prob.30% / 71%
Edge (Hel)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12362460
Melnik2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 35 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back16% 12 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 49
Hel1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it79% 41 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik4wins
AwayHel6wins
Hel leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik60%3 of 5
AwayHel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik5Hel5n = 10split evenly
S2Melnik4Hel6n = 10Hel took 6 of 10
S3Melnik6Hel4n = 10Melnik took 6 of 10
S4Melnik3Hel6n = 9Hel took 6 of 9
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikHelM − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.4+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikHelBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 379 vs 118 / 20248.3%58.4%183 / 379 vs 118 / 202Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelMelnik 2.50/Hel 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.5%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 13:55O. Melnik—7131191V. Hel—11157113
WJul 29 · 05:25O. Melnik—81113113V. Hel—1171161
LJul 21 · 13:55O. Melnik—8111591V. Hel—11917113
WJul 15 · 07:25O. Melnik—111011113V. Hel—712971
LJul 9 · 07:55O. Melnik—811961V. Hel—11911113
WJun 10 · 10:55O. Melnik—1111113V. Hel—9270
WJun 9 · 18:25O. Melnik—11611113V. Hel—711691
LMay 29 · 09:28O. Melnik—1571091V. Hel—131112113
LMay 29 · 07:55O. Melnik—118961V. Hel—51111113
LMay 6 · 07:25O. Melnik—1181181V. Hel—13119113
O. Melnik10
WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192LSep 2 · 09:25A. Didyk1.57127129113O. Melnik2.251011101162WSep 2 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.2278110O. Melnik4.001111133LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik1.8011113792D. Kozoriz1.91001111113WSep 2 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv3.006540O. Melnik1.361111113LSep 1 · 18:55O. Melnik3.754590S. Kryvoshyi1.251111113LSep 1 · 16:55A. Didyk1.611161110113O. Melnik2.2081171262WSep 1 · 14:55D. Kozoriz2.00118251O. Melnik1.7361111113LSep 1 · 13:55O. Melnik1.6761070V. Kheresko2.101112113LSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440
V. Hel10
LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113LAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.5081115113V. Hel1.171171381WAug 6 · 15:25V. Hel1.571111113A. Didyk2.257780LAug 6 · 14:25K. Tkachenko1.6711811113V. Hel2.10911891LAug 6 · 12:55V. Hel1.57117981S. Kryvoshyi2.2551111113LAug 5 · 11:25V. Hel2.0011104101R. Bihun1.7371211123WAug 5 · 09:25S. Kryvoshyi2.201141281V. Hel1.6161114113LAug 5 · 07:25A. Didyk2.6361111113V. Hel1.44117781LAug 5 · 06:25V. Hel2.0099110M. Styranets1.731111133WAug 4 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57811111142V. Hel2.25119138113
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