TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12367332
Played Aug 6Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811118119––
Valerii Hel
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 57.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 4–4 Valerii Hel Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1406 vs Hel 1329
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 60% vs Hel 20%
Tkachenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 60% vs Hel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko -2 · Hel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.67 / Hel 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Tkachenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12367332
Tkachenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 62 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it81% 46 of 57
Hel2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 35 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTkachenko4wins
AwayHel4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko60%3 of 5
AwayHel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko5Hel3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S2Tkachenko5Hel3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S3Tkachenko5Hel3n = 8Tkachenko took 5 of 8
S4Tkachenko2Hel2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricTkachenkoHelT − HBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.835.9+0.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoHelBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 160 vs 120 / 20853.8%57.7%86 / 160 vs 120 / 208Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.67/Hel 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 4 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—811111142V. Hel—119138113
WJul 28 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—1811113V. Hel—16870
LJul 21 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—1110971V. Hel—81211113
LJun 23 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—11812692V. Hel—6111011113
WJun 16 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—1111123V. Hel—48100
LMay 5 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—6670V. Hel—1111113
WApr 28 · 17:55K. Tkachenko—71111113V. Hel—119791
WApr 2 · 14:25K. Tkachenko—1111113V. Hel—8680
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101
V. Hel10
LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113LAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.5081115113V. Hel1.171171381WAug 6 · 15:25V. Hel1.571111113A. Didyk2.257780LAug 6 · 12:55V. Hel1.57117981S. Kryvoshyi2.2551111113LAug 5 · 11:25V. Hel2.0011104101R. Bihun1.7371211123WAug 5 · 09:25S. Kryvoshyi2.201141281V. Hel1.6161114113LAug 5 · 07:25A. Didyk2.6361111113V. Hel1.44117781LAug 5 · 06:25V. Hel2.0099110M. Styranets1.731111133WAug 5 · 05:25O. Melnik2.50611121122V. Hel1.50117146113WAug 4 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57811111142V. Hel2.25119138113
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