TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12362724
Played Aug 5Finished
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1164111214811––
Valerii Hel
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kryvoshyi above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Valerii Hel at 57.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kryvoshyi 8–7 Valerii Hel Valerii Hel has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kryvoshyi 1362 vs Hel 1337
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kryvoshyi 80% vs Hel 40%
Kryvoshyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kryvoshyi 60% vs Hel 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kryvoshyi +2 · Hel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Hel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKryvoshyi 2.20 / Hel 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hel)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12362724
Kryvoshyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 29 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back17% 11 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Hel1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 60 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it79% 41 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKryvoshyi4wins
AwayHel6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHel leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKryvoshyi60%3 of 5
AwayHel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kryvoshyi5Hel5n = 10split evenly
S2Kryvoshyi6Hel4n = 10Kryvoshyi took 6 of 10
S3Kryvoshyi3Hel7n = 10Hel took 7 of 10
S4Kryvoshyi2Hel5n = 7Hel took 5 of 7
S5Kryvoshyi2Hel2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKryvoshyiHelK − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.540.6−3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKryvoshyiHelBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 566 vs 119 / 20547%58.1%266 / 566 vs 119 / 205Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelKryvoshyi 2.20/Hel 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi—1111012113V. Hel—115121072
LJul 29 · 10:55S. Kryvoshyi—914891V. Hel—111211113
WJul 28 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi—134112113V. Hel—111181182
LJul 21 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi—9760V. Hel—1111113
LJul 15 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi—111181042V. Hel—771112113
LMay 28 · 07:55S. Kryvoshyi—10460V. Hel—1211113
WMay 21 · 10:55S. Kryvoshyi—11119113V. Hel—681151
LMay 6 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi—891491V. Hel—111112113
LMay 5 · 11:55S. Kryvoshyi—111376102V. Hel—5111111123
WApr 29 · 07:55S. Kryvoshyi—1111123V. Hel—98100
S. Kryvoshyi10
WSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113LSep 7 · 05:55H. Oliynyk3.40812711113S. Kryvoshyi1.30111011772WSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113LSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520LSep 2 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0051111111A. Didyk1.7311134133LSep 2 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.251011131062O. Maksymkiv3.751271112113
V. Hel10
LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113LAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.5081115113V. Hel1.171171381WAug 6 · 15:25V. Hel1.571111113A. Didyk2.257780LAug 6 · 14:25K. Tkachenko1.6711811113V. Hel2.10911891LAug 6 · 12:55V. Hel1.57117981S. Kryvoshyi2.2551111113LAug 5 · 11:25V. Hel2.0011104101R. Bihun1.7371211123LAug 5 · 07:25A. Didyk2.6361111113V. Hel1.44117781LAug 5 · 06:25V. Hel2.0099110M. Styranets1.731111133WAug 5 · 05:25O. Melnik2.50611121122V. Hel1.50117146113WAug 4 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57811111142V. Hel2.25119138113
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