TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12357032
Played Aug 4Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111191113118411
Valerii Hel
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 97 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 59.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 4–3 Valerii Hel Valerii Hel has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tkachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1436 vs Hel 1345
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 100% vs Hel 80%
Tkachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 70% vs Hel 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +5 · Hel -1
Tkachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.57 / Hel 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Tkachenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12357032
Tkachenko1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite73% won 62 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 43 of 55
Hel2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 34 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTkachenko4wins
AwayHel3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderTkachenko leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkachenko60%3 of 5
AwayHeln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkachenko5Hel2n = 7Tkachenko took 5 of 7
S2Tkachenko4Hel3n = 7Tkachenko took 4 of 7
S3Tkachenko5Hel2n = 7Tkachenko took 5 of 7
S4Tkachenko1Hel2n = 3Hel took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricTkachenkoHelT − HBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match35.633.6+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoHelBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 158 vs 117 / 20154.4%58.2%86 / 158 vs 117 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoTkachenko 1.57/Hel 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 28 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—1811113V. Hel—16870
LJul 21 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—1110971V. Hel—81211113
LJun 23 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—11812692V. Hel—6111011113
WJun 16 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—1111123V. Hel—48100
LMay 5 · 18:25K. Tkachenko—6670V. Hel—1111113
WApr 28 · 17:55K. Tkachenko—71111113V. Hel—119791
WApr 2 · 14:25K. Tkachenko—1111113V. Hel—8680
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470LAug 18 · 14:25A. Didyk2.501111113K. Tkachenko1.507740WAug 18 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.2012129123O. Melnik4.33101011101
V. Hel10
LAug 6 · 18:25V. Hel2.206111251M. Styranets1.6111514113LAug 6 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi4.5081115113V. Hel1.171171381WAug 6 · 15:25V. Hel1.571111113A. Didyk2.257780LAug 6 · 14:25K. Tkachenko1.6711811113V. Hel2.10911891LAug 6 · 12:55V. Hel1.57117981S. Kryvoshyi2.2551111113LAug 5 · 11:25V. Hel2.0011104101R. Bihun1.7371211123WAug 5 · 09:25S. Kryvoshyi2.201141281V. Hel1.6161114113LAug 5 · 07:25A. Didyk2.6361111113V. Hel1.44117781LAug 5 · 06:25V. Hel2.0099110M. Styranets1.731111133WAug 5 · 05:25O. Melnik2.50611121122V. Hel1.50117146113
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