TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153986
Played Sep 20Finished
Josef Pelikan
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 13Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 13
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611114611911––
Pavel Berdych
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeJosef Pelikan to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Pelikan above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Josef Pelikan at 77.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Josef Pelikan 15–4 Pavel Berdych Pavel Berdych has won 4 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:13What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Pelikan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-4 in 19
Pelikan
Wrong
gap of 11 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelikan 1336 vs Berdych 1267
Pelikan
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelikan 100% vs Berdych 40%
Pelikan
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelikan 100% vs Berdych 20%
Pelikan
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelikan +13 · Berdych -1
Pelikan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Pelikan) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelikan 1.28 / Berdych 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Pelikan)+6.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153986
Pelikan1.28
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 13
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 47 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Berdych3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 19 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelikan9wins
AwayBerdych1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPelikan leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelikan80%4 of 5
AwayBerdych0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelikan5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S2Pelikan8Berdych2n = 10Pelikan took 8 of 10
S3Pelikan7Berdych3n = 10Pelikan took 7 of 10
S4Pelikan9Berdych0n = 9Pelikan took 9 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home880%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelikanBerdychP − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.732.9+7.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelikanBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 294 vs 210 / 43550.3%48.3%148 / 294 vs 210 / 435Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelikanPelikan 1.28/Berdych 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Pelikan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Berdych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 24 · 20:30J. Pelikan401118113P. Berdych2311660
WJun 15 · 19:00J. Pelikan4071111113P. Berdych32115791
WApr 12 · 02:00J. Pelikan4111118113P. Berdych28591131
WMar 28 · 21:00J. Pelikan4061112113P. Berdych381181091
WMar 27 · 22:28J. Pelikan4111711123P. Berdych306113101
WMar 27 · 21:30J. Pelikan3851111113P. Berdych33117691
LSep 18 · 18:30J. Pelikan4512891152P. Berdych491011116113
WSep 9 · 19:00J. Pelikan4211119113P. Berdych37991181
WSep 7 · 20:30J. Pelikan4171111123P. Berdych361169101
WAug 29 · 20:30J. Pelikan3961111113P. Berdych23114261
J. Pelikan10
WSep 20 · 24:30J. Grohsgott1.836590J. Pelikan1.831111113WSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 19 · 22:30J. Pelikan1.911111113L. Havrda1.807980WSep 16 · 03:30J. Pelikan1.6811911113S. Mazanek2.05911861WSep 16 · 02:30S. Mazanek2.107680J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 16 · 01:00D. Mutl2.105980J. Pelikan1.671111113WSep 15 · 23:30J. Pelikan1.22611711113M. Syroha4.0011311772WSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102WSep 11 · 21:29J. Pelikan1.4413511113J. Hyrsl2.631111891WSep 11 · 20:00J. Pelikan1.80127114113V. Stach1.91101161112
P. Berdych10
LSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych2.00111367112M. Novotny1.738111111133WSep 19 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.635660P. Berdych1.441111113WSep 19 · 13:12V. Sr1.801181081P. Berdych1.9151112113LSep 19 · 12:00M. Stefek1.33121011113P. Berdych3.251012861LSep 19 · 11:00V. Sr2.00511711113P. Berdych1.7311711482LSep 19 · 10:30P. Berdych2.1041161162J. Strnad1.67118119113LSep 14 · 17:00P. Kulhanek1.5061111123P. Berdych2.501159101LSep 14 · 16:30J. Strnad1.7341111113P. Berdych2.00117921LSep 14 · 15:30P. Berdych2.20611341P. Kulhanek1.6111911113LSep 14 · 14:30V. Sr2.25131111113P. Berdych1.57155641
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