TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153874
Played Sep 19Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101012118116––
Pavel Berdych
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 80 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Martin Stefek at 72.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 5–2 Pavel Berdych Pavel Berdych has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:55What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Stefek
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1397 vs Berdych 1260
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Berdych 0%
Stefek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 70% vs Berdych 20%
Stefek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Berdych -7
Berdych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (0%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.33 / Berdych 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Stefek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153874
Stefek1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 113 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 107
Berdych3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog26% won 19 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwayBerdych2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderStefek leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek80%4 of 5
AwayBerdychn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Berdych2n = 7Stefek took 5 of 7
S2Stefek4Berdych3n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S3Stefek3Berdych4n = 7Berdych took 4 of 7
S4Stefek2Berdych2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricStefekBerdychS − BBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match38.435.7+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime594 / 1237 vs 208 / 43148%48.3%594 / 1237 vs 208 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.33/Berdych 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 27 · 19:30M. Stefek48571114113P. Berdych45111121292
WJun 24 · 19:30M. Stefek331111113P. Berdych237970
WMay 3 · 02:30M. Stefek521111910113P. Berdych4487111262
WFeb 7 · 18:00M. Stefek4211137113P. Berdych376111191
LFeb 7 · 16:00M. Stefek258980P. Berdych331111113
WFeb 6 · 16:30M. Stefek331111113P. Berdych248790
LJul 11 · 14:00M. Stefek361210771P. Berdych44101211113
M. Stefek10
LSep 19 · 11:30J. Strnad2.75141111113M. Stefek1.40169551WSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551WSep 18 · 13:30M. Stefek1.50941111113P. Kulhanek2.4511117942WSep 18 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda1.8378100M. Stefek1.831111123WSep 18 · 11:00P. Kulhanek2.3840121172M. Stefek1.531111107113WSep 18 · 10:30M. Stefek1.671211123Z. Drabek2.10103100WSep 18 · 08:59M. Stefek1.6751113113Z. Zikmunda2.101141191WSep 18 · 08:00M. Stefek2.101113113Z. Zikmunda1.6721180LSep 18 · 07:30Z. Drabek2.101111123M. Stefek1.6796100LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stefek2.75111211262T. Nohejl1.4013101110113
P. Berdych10
WSep 19 · 13:12V. Sr1.801181081P. Berdych1.9151112113LSep 19 · 11:00V. Sr2.00511711113P. Berdych1.7311711482LSep 19 · 10:30P. Berdych2.1041161162J. Strnad1.67118119113LSep 14 · 17:00P. Kulhanek1.5061111123P. Berdych2.501159101LSep 14 · 16:30J. Strnad1.7341111113P. Berdych2.00117921LSep 14 · 15:30P. Berdych2.20611341P. Kulhanek1.6111911113LSep 14 · 14:30V. Sr2.25131111113P. Berdych1.57155641LSep 12 · 21:30J. Strnad1.671111143P. Berdych2.1074120WSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych1.671111133V. Sr2.1074110WSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych2.25111110153M. Novotny1.579812131
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