TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153772
Played Sep 19Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1416119115115––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 82 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Martin Stefek at 65.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 13–35 Martin Stefek Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 13 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-35 in 48
Stefek
Wrong
gap of 22 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1409 vs Stefek 1420
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 20% vs Stefek 100%
Stefek
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 50% vs Stefek 80%
Stefek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +1 · Stefek +7
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.75 / Stefek 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Stefek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153772
Strnad2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 86 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 80
Stefek1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 113 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad3wins
AwayStefek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad66.7%2 of 3
AwayStefek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S2Strnad5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Strnad4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S4Strnad3Stefek2n = 5Strnad took 3 of 5
S5Strnad1Stefek3n = 4Stefek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadStefekStrnad − StefekBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.7−0.9per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 1122 vs 594 / 123649.1%48.1%551 / 1122 vs 594 / 1236Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStrnad 2.75/Stefek 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 22:30J. Strnad4171341162M. Stefek491111115113
WJul 2 · 15:30J. Strnad331111113M. Stefek148150
LJun 29 · 10:00J. Strnad207490M. Stefek331111113
LJun 26 · 06:00J. Strnad2810990M. Stefek341211113
LJun 25 · 13:30J. Strnad43211101192M. Stefek44114126113
LJun 25 · 10:00J. Strnad32791151M. Stefek3811115113
LJun 24 · 01:30J. Strnad48128711102M. Stefek451011111123
LJun 23 · 13:00J. Strnad2614840M. Stefek381611113
WJun 23 · 12:00J. Strnad54911167113M. Stefek52119141172
WJun 22 · 01:00J. Strnad331111113M. Stefek209560
J. Strnad10
WSep 19 · 10:30P. Berdych2.1041161162J. Strnad1.67118119113LSep 18 · 20:58T. Regner1.331411113J. Strnad3.2512870LSep 18 · 20:30J. Strnad2.007570L. Sulava1.731111113LSep 18 · 19:00J. Strnad3.2561111682T. Regner1.33118711113LSep 18 · 18:00V. Kosar1.44111268113J. Strnad2.63310111182WSep 17 · 21:28J. Strnad1.67111111113M. Barta2.10138751LSep 17 · 20:00J. Strnad1.617146111M. Barta2.20111211133WSep 17 · 19:30J. Svec2.755540J. Strnad1.401111113WSep 17 · 18:00J. Strnad1.301111113J. Grohsgott3.400930WSep 17 · 09:30V. Sr2.0061111772J. Strnad1.73114911113
M. Stefek10
WSep 19 · 12:00M. Stefek1.33121011113P. Berdych3.251012861WSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551WSep 18 · 13:30M. Stefek1.50941111113P. Kulhanek2.4511117942WSep 18 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda1.8378100M. Stefek1.831111123WSep 18 · 11:00P. Kulhanek2.3840121172M. Stefek1.531111107113WSep 18 · 10:30M. Stefek1.671211123Z. Drabek2.10103100WSep 18 · 08:59M. Stefek1.6751113113Z. Zikmunda2.101141191WSep 18 · 08:00M. Stefek2.101113113Z. Zikmunda1.6721180LSep 18 · 07:30Z. Drabek2.101111123M. Stefek1.6796100LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stefek2.75111211262T. Nohejl1.4013101110113
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