TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153753
Played Sep 18Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911411117119114
Pavel Kulhanek
Away
2.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Pavel Kulhanek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 88 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Martin Stefek at 58.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 8–11 Pavel Kulhanek Martin Stefek has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stefek beat Kulhanek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:06What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Kulhanek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1431 vs Kulhanek 1281
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 100% vs Kulhanek 20%
Stefek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 60% vs Kulhanek 30%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +5 · Kulhanek +1
Stefek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulhanek form (20%) is below what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.50 / Kulhanek 2.45
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stefek)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153753
Stefek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 108 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 80 of 105
Kulhanek2.45
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 42 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwayKulhanek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek71.4%5 of 7
AwayKulhanek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek7Kulhanek3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S2Stefek6Kulhanek4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S3Stefek5Kulhanek5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek2Kulhanek4n = 6Kulhanek took 4 of 6
S5Stefek1Kulhanek2n = 3Kulhanek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekKulhanekS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.437.1+1.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekKulhanekBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1234 vs 223 / 42748%52.2%592 / 1234 vs 223 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.50/Kulhanek 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 11:00M. Stefek501111107113P. Kulhanek3440121172
LAug 24 · 15:00M. Stefek349213101P. Kulhanek45111111123
WAug 12 · 07:00M. Stefek4212117123P. Kulhanek3810711101
WJul 31 · 23:30M. Stefek351111133P. Kulhanek2797110
WJul 30 · 11:30M. Stefek411111193P. Kulhanek3195170
WApr 9 · 11:30M. Stefek331111113P. Kulhanek167630
LMar 5 · 03:00M. Stefek43211111182P. Kulhanek53119913113
LMar 1 · 12:00M. Stefek4411581192P. Kulhanek48811117113
LFeb 27 · 13:58M. Stefek4211119111P. Kulhanek4691311133
LFeb 27 · 13:00M. Stefek206590P. Kulhanek331111113
M. Stefek10
WSep 18 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda1.8378100M. Stefek1.831111123WSep 18 · 11:00P. Kulhanek2.3840121172M. Stefek1.531111107113WSep 18 · 10:30M. Stefek1.671211123Z. Drabek2.10103100WSep 18 · 08:59M. Stefek1.6751113113Z. Zikmunda2.101141191WSep 18 · 08:00M. Stefek2.101113113Z. Zikmunda1.6721180LSep 18 · 07:30Z. Drabek2.101111123M. Stefek1.6796100LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stefek2.75111211262T. Nohejl1.4013101110113WSep 17 · 21:00L. Sulava1.807118111M. Stefek1.9111211133LSep 17 · 20:30R. Hasmanda2.201211113M. Stefek1.6110450LSep 17 · 19:30M. Stefek1.83771491V. Kosar1.83111112113
P. Kulhanek10
WSep 18 · 12:30P. Kulhanek1.83941111113Z. Drabek1.8311117572LSep 18 · 11:00P. Kulhanek2.3840121172M. Stefek1.531111107113LSep 18 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda1.441141111133P. Kulhanek2.63611313112LSep 16 · 12:59M. Chalupnicek1.441111113P. Kulhanek2.635570LSep 16 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.4491111113P. Kulhanek2.63118551LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad1.731211113P. Kulhanek2.0010790LSep 16 · 10:30P. Kulhanek2.00116841V. Sr1.7391111113WSep 14 · 17:00P. Kulhanek1.5061111123P. Berdych2.501159101LSep 14 · 16:00P. Kulhanek2.00119931V. Sr1.7331111113WSep 14 · 15:30P. Berdych2.20611341P. Kulhanek1.6111911113
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