TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146769
Played Sep 18Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101131210––––
Zbynek Drabek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbynek Drabek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Zbynek Drabek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 58 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Zbynek Drabek at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 3–3 Zbynek Drabek Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Drabek beat Stefek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1403 vs Drabek 1352
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Drabek 80%
Drabek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 60% vs Drabek 80%
Drabek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +2 · Drabek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drabek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.67 / Drabek 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Drabek)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146769
Stefek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 108 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it76% 80 of 105
Drabek2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 15 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back35% 6 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayDrabek3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek50%2 of 4
AwayDrabekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek4Drabek2n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S2Stefek4Drabek2n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S3Stefek4Drabek2n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S4Stefek0Drabek3n = 3Drabek took 3 of 3
S5Stefek1Drabek2n = 3Drabek took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricStefekDrabekS − DBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match36.837.8−1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekDrabekBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 1231 vs 50 / 9647.9%52.1%589 / 1231 vs 50 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.67/Drabek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 18 · 07:30M. Stefek2596100Z. Drabek341111123
LJun 17 · 12:30M. Stefek41131121052Z. Drabek541191112113
WJun 17 · 09:00M. Stefek46613115113Z. Drabek49111181182
WJun 17 · 08:30M. Stefek331111113Z. Drabek214890
WMay 4 · 11:30M. Stefek331111113Z. Drabek208840
LApr 25 · 10:30M. Stefek43114121062Z. Drabek495111012113
M. Stefek10
WSep 18 · 11:00P. Kulhanek2.3840121172M. Stefek1.531111107113WSep 18 · 08:59M. Stefek1.6751113113Z. Zikmunda2.101141191WSep 18 · 08:00M. Stefek2.101113113Z. Zikmunda1.6721180LSep 18 · 07:30Z. Drabek2.101111123M. Stefek1.6796100LSep 18 · 06:00M. Stefek2.75111211262T. Nohejl1.4013101110113WSep 17 · 21:00L. Sulava1.807118111M. Stefek1.9111211133LSep 17 · 20:30R. Hasmanda2.201211113M. Stefek1.6110450LSep 17 · 19:30M. Stefek1.83771491V. Kosar1.83111112113WSep 17 · 18:30L. Sulava1.9111991182M. Stefek1.80711116113WSep 17 · 03:28M. Stefek2.00481111113T. Regner1.7311118342
Z. Drabek10
WSep 18 · 11:30Z. Drabek1.501111113Z. Zikmunda2.508990LSep 18 · 09:28Z. Drabek1.67108100T. Nohejl2.101211123WSep 18 · 08:30T. Nohejl1.80611861Z. Drabek1.9111911113WSep 18 · 07:30Z. Drabek2.101111123M. Stefek1.6796100WSep 18 · 06:30Z. Zikmunda1.835880Z. Drabek1.831111113WSep 5 · 13:28Z. Zikmunda1.8311971182Z. Drabek1.83811119113LSep 5 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda2.001111113Z. Drabek1.734650WSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.30101111113M. Barta3.40126471WSep 5 · 09:28Z. Drabek1.735111011113Z. Zikmunda2.0011612792
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