TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13148804
Played Sep 17Finished
Lubor Sulava
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111128111113––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLubor Sulava to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLubor Sulava above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 74 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Lubor Sulava at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lubor Sulava 17–13 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stefek beat Sulava 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:57What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sulava
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-13 in 30
Sulava
Wrong
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulava 1376 vs Stefek 1393
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulava 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulava 50% vs Stefek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulava +1 · Stefek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulava)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulava form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulava 1.80 / Stefek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulava)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13148804
Sulava1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 114 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it82% 83 of 101
Stefek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 178 of 415
Down 0–1, comes back23% 51 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulava3wins
AwayStefek7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulava33.3%2 of 6
AwayStefek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulava6Stefek4n = 10Sulava took 6 of 10
S2Sulava2Stefek8n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S3Sulava3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S4Sulava5Stefek4n = 9Sulava took 5 of 9
S5Sulava3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulavaStefekSulava − StefekBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.942.90.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulavaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 961 vs 590 / 123449.5%47.8%476 / 961 vs 590 / 1234Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulavaSulava 1.80/Stefek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulava · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 18:30L. Sulava4811991182M. Stefek46711116113
WSep 11 · 06:00L. Sulava52118911133M. Stefek46811115112
LSep 10 · 09:00L. Sulava4011861142M. Stefek43511115113
LSep 10 · 06:00L. Sulava4911691492M. Stefek549111112113
WSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava48121168113M. Stefek43104111172
LAug 28 · 24:00L. Sulava31119110M. Stefek371311133
LAug 3 · 02:00L. Sulava4678111192M. Stefek46111185113
WJun 7 · 10:00L. Sulava5511111111113M. Stefek4113661332
LMay 5 · 02:30L. Sulava25112481M. Stefek3521111113
LMar 26 · 03:30L. Sulava35981171M. Stefek3811115113
L. Sulava10
WSep 17 · 20:00V. Kosar2.10991191L. Sulava1.6711119113LSep 17 · 19:00R. Hasmanda1.3611117113L. Sulava3.00681171LSep 17 · 18:30L. Sulava1.9111991182M. Stefek1.80711116113WSep 16 · 17:00L. Sulava2.00111117113J. Pleskot1.7361161162LSep 16 · 16:00T. Regner1.9111118113L. Sulava1.80481191WSep 16 · 15:00J. Pleskot1.83351191L. Sulava1.8311119113LSep 16 · 14:30L. Sulava1.833650T. Nohejl1.831111113WSep 15 · 17:30L. Sulava1.8581111113M. Barta1.85115861WSep 15 · 16:30L. Havel3.004870L. Sulava1.361111113LSep 15 · 15:30L. Sulava2.2011811362T. Nohejl1.61711511113
M. Stefek10
LSep 17 · 20:30R. Hasmanda2.201211113M. Stefek1.6110450LSep 17 · 19:30M. Stefek1.83771491V. Kosar1.83111112113WSep 17 · 18:30L. Sulava1.9111991182M. Stefek1.80711116113WSep 17 · 03:28M. Stefek2.00481111113T. Regner1.7311118342WSep 17 · 02:00J. Framberk2.255840M. Stefek1.571111113LSep 17 · 24:30M. Stefek2.001178101T. Regner1.7391111123WSep 16 · 23:00M. Stefek2.00111110113M. Novak1.73961251WSep 16 · 22:00R. Hasmanda2.0094100M. Stefek1.731111123LSep 15 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.671311113M. Stefek2.1011970LSep 15 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.8311811113M. Stefek1.83311741
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