TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135671
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1197118111012––
Tomas Regner
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Martin Stefek at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 22–21 Tomas Regner Tomas Regner has won 21 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:17What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-21 in 43
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1369 vs Regner 1339
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Regner 60%
Regner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 40% vs Regner 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +2 · Regner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.00 / Regner 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Regner)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135671
Stefek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 177 of 415
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 136
Regner1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 88 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it90% 37 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it70% 60 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek7wins
AwayRegner3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek80%4 of 5
AwayRegner40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek5Regner1n = 6Stefek took 5 of 6
S5Stefek3Regner1n = 4Stefek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekRegnerS − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.135.8+0.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime586 / 1231 vs 487 / 98747.6%49.3%586 / 1231 vs 487 / 987Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerStefek 2.00/Regner 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 22:00M. Stefek371111153T. Regner2988130
WSep 9 · 16:30M. Stefek48121114113T. Regner431491281
WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek39312111123T. Regner471110115102
LAug 30 · 20:00M. Stefek177550T. Regner331111113
WAug 28 · 02:30M. Stefek49118118113T. Regner4271181152
WAug 25 · 22:00M. Stefek331111113T. Regner178450
WAug 24 · 16:00M. Stefek43911111113T. Regner4011116482
LAug 23 · 13:30M. Stefek185580T. Regner331111113
LAug 23 · 10:30M. Stefek3911651162T. Regner49811118113
WAug 23 · 09:00M. Stefek3811115113T. Regner25341171
M. Stefek10
WSep 16 · 23:00M. Stefek2.00111110113M. Novak1.73961251WSep 16 · 22:00R. Hasmanda2.0094100M. Stefek1.731111123LSep 15 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.671311113M. Stefek2.1011970LSep 15 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.8311811113M. Stefek1.83311741LSep 15 · 01:00V. Kosar2.0011911203M. Stefek1.738116181LSep 14 · 23:30M. Stefek2.6366111172V. Dolezal1.44111177113WSep 14 · 22:00M. Stefek1.911111153T. Regner1.8088130LSep 14 · 09:00M. Stefek2.008730A. Svoboda1.731111113LSep 14 · 08:30M. Stefek3.257490J. Jnr1.331111113WSep 14 · 07:00M. Stefek2.25111111113A. Svoboda1.57413751
T. Regner10
WSep 17 · 01:30T. Regner1.67119118113M. Novak2.1091181192WSep 16 · 23:30R. Hasmanda2.755770T. Regner1.401111113LSep 16 · 22:30T. Regner1.91138941J. Framberk1.80111111113WSep 16 · 17:30T. Nohejl1.7110990T. Regner2.001211113WSep 16 · 16:00T. Regner1.9111118113L. Sulava1.80481191LSep 16 · 15:30T. Nohejl1.831112133T. Regner1.83810110WSep 16 · 14:00T. Regner1.40914116113J. Pleskot2.75111271132LSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar2.751112113T. Regner1.4021090WSep 15 · 24:30T. Regner2.63411711163V. Dolezal1.44119118142LSep 14 · 22:00M. Stefek1.911111153T. Regner1.8088130
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