TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13125642
Played Sep 14Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141113117115––
Adam Svoboda
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:32 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 63.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 12–9 Adam Svoboda Adam Svoboda has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Stefek
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1366 vs Svoboda 1506
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Svoboda 70%
Svoboda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Svoboda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.25 / Svoboda 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Svoboda)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13125642
Stefek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 413
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 135
Svoboda1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 61 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwaySvoboda6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek57.1%4 of 7
AwaySvoboda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek7Svoboda3n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S2Stefek3Svoboda7n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S3Stefek3Svoboda7n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S4Stefek3Svoboda5n = 8Svoboda took 5 of 8
S5Stefek2Svoboda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSvobodaStefek − SvobodaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.942.1−4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime583 / 1226 vs 165 / 31447.6%52.6%583 / 1226 vs 165 / 314Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaStefek 2.25/Svoboda 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 07:00M. Stefek44111111113A. Svoboda29413751
WSep 10 · 12:00M. Stefek49121267123A. Svoboda5210101111102
LSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek153930A. Svoboda331111113
LSep 6 · 17:00M. Stefek2459100A. Svoboda341111123
LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek34119771A. Svoboda3741111113
WSep 4 · 22:30M. Stefek46111212113A. Svoboda429101491
LSep 4 · 21:29M. Stefek29117741A. Svoboda4291111113
LSep 4 · 19:00M. Stefek4585161152A. Svoboda561111149113
WAug 24 · 12:00M. Stefek48111149133A. Svoboda47681111112
LAug 23 · 11:30M. Stefek45114128102A. Svoboda495111011123
M. Stefek10
LSep 14 · 06:00K. Darin1.44911911133M. Stefek2.63117112112WSep 13 · 13:00M. Stefek1.90101111113M. Ulrych1.80123851LSep 13 · 12:00M. Ulrych1.6111127113M. Stefek2.209101181LSep 13 · 11:00V. Dolezal1.4411611113M. Stefek2.63911361WSep 13 · 10:30M. Stefek2.50119116113D. Barton1.5041191182LSep 13 · 09:07M. Stefek10.0043111632V. Dolezal1.031111914113LSep 13 · 08:30M. Stefek2.75411118132V. Dolezal1.40115511153LSep 13 · 07:00M. Stefek4.50138941D. Horak1.17111111113WSep 13 · 06:00D. Barton1.3087130M. Stefek3.401111153LSep 12 · 02:00M. Stefek1.91741251M. Ulrych1.80111110113
A. Svoboda10
LSep 14 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.7311134442J. Jnr2.007111111113WSep 13 · 03:29A. Svoboda1.7351111113F. Briza2.00113471WSep 13 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.9112119113M. Kolar1.801071181WSep 13 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.101211113M. Placek1.6710890WSep 13 · 24:00A. Mikuska1.4013871182A. Svoboda2.751111117113LSep 12 · 22:30F. Briza1.73571113113A. Svoboda2.00111161162WSep 12 · 17:29M. Kolar1.3671151172A. Svoboda3.00113118113WSep 12 · 16:00F. Jungman1.679211111A. Svoboda2.1011119133WSep 12 · 15:00M. Fisera2.5012813672A. Svoboda1.5010111111113LSep 12 · 14:30A. Svoboda2.38411891M. Kolar1.5311511113
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