TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13113810
Played Sep 12Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411115811911––
Milan Kolar
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:53 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-8
Point 65 set 4, 7-8 — our read held Milan Kolar at 54.5%
65 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Adam Svoboda 2–2 Milan Kolar Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1536 vs Kolar 1525
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Kolar 60%
Kolar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Kolar 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Kolar -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kolar) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.38 / Kolar 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kolar)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13113810
Svoboda2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 39 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Kolar1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 126 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 96 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayKolar2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda2Kolar2n = 4split evenly
S2Svoboda1Kolar3n = 4Kolar took 3 of 4
S3Svoboda2Kolar2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricSvobodaKolarS − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match26.828.5−1.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 303 vs 403 / 80452.2%50.1%158 / 303 vs 403 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolarSvoboda 2.38/Kolar 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 8 · 24:00A. Svoboda189450M. Kolar331111113
LJul 18 · 01:00A. Svoboda148060M. Kolar331111113
WJun 6 · 24:00A. Svoboda331111113M. Kolar163850
WMay 30 · 02:00A. Svoboda4211911113M. Kolar32611961
A. Svoboda10
WSep 12 · 16:00F. Jungman1.679211111A. Svoboda2.1011119133WSep 12 · 15:00M. Fisera2.5012813672A. Svoboda1.5010111111113LSep 11 · 13:30J. Dedek1.431111113A. Svoboda2.607950LSep 11 · 12:00J. Dedek1.44117117133A. Svoboda2.63411911112WSep 11 · 11:00M. Svedik1.53241151A. Svoboda2.3811114113WSep 11 · 10:30A. Svoboda2.00271111113J. Steffan1.7311116852LSep 11 · 08:59A. Svoboda1.6171090O. Fejtek2.201112113WSep 11 · 08:00A. Svoboda1.831111113O. Fejtek1.834690LSep 11 · 07:30T. Andrle1.6111116113A. Svoboda2.20961181WSep 11 · 06:00A. Svoboda2.201171011113J. Steffan1.6171112952
M. Kolar10
LSep 12 · 15:30M. Kolar1.53164981F. Jungman2.38141111113LSep 10 · 17:30M. Kolar2.758590M. Vedmoch1.401111113LSep 10 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.40511712113M. Kolar2.75117111042WSep 10 · 15:00M. Sedlak1.5061030M. Kolar2.501112113WSep 10 · 14:30M. Kolar2.501181011113T. Dousa1.5081112372WSep 10 · 13:00M. Kolar1.611111113J. Dedek2.207890LSep 10 · 12:30M. Kolar2.0010750V. Postelt1.731211113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Kolar2.2012840T. Vinter1.611411113WSep 10 · 10:00J. Dedek1.904730M. Kolar1.801111113WSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181
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