TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13108601
Played Sep 11Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1177111012119115
Jan Steffan
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 94 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 55.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 5–8 Jan Steffan Adam Svoboda has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Steffan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Steffan
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1553 vs Steffan 1417
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Steffan 20%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 70% vs Steffan 40%
Svoboda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +1 · Steffan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Steffan) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.20 / Steffan 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svoboda)+3.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13108601
Svoboda2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 36 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Steffan1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 133 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it92% 70 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it80% 106 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda4wins
AwaySteffan6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSteffan leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda80%4 of 5
AwaySteffan100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S2Svoboda2Steffan8n = 10Steffan took 8 of 10
S3Svoboda2Steffan8n = 10Steffan took 8 of 10
S4Svoboda4Steffan3n = 7Svoboda took 4 of 7
S5Svoboda3Steffan1n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaSteffanSvoboda − SteffanBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.6−3.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 297 vs 463 / 96952.2%47.8%155 / 297 vs 463 / 969Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSvoboda 2.20/Steffan 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 06:00A. Svoboda—1171011113J. Steffan—71112952
LJun 20 · 03:29A. Svoboda—111031162J. Steffan—512116113
LJun 20 · 24:00A. Svoboda—8650J. Steffan—1111113
WMay 23 · 24:00A. Svoboda—11118113J. Steffan—681191
LMay 9 · 03:28A. Svoboda—5570J. Steffan—1111113
LMay 9 · 02:30A. Svoboda—781171J. Steffan—11115113
WApr 18 · 02:30A. Svoboda—119911113J. Steffan—51111682
LApr 3 · 23:30A. Svoboda—1114100J. Steffan—1316123
LMar 20 · 23:30A. Svoboda—411361J. Steffan—11811113
WMar 14 · 03:00A. Svoboda—115146113J. Steffan—711121152
A. Svoboda10
WSep 11 · 08:00A. Svoboda1.831111113O. Fejtek1.834690LSep 11 · 07:30T. Andrle1.6111116113A. Svoboda2.20961181WSep 10 · 12:58A. Svoboda1.281113113R. Hasmanda3.5061170LSep 10 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.5310101111102M. Stefek2.38121267123LSep 10 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.50811115133A. Svoboda1.50119511112WSep 10 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.301111113R. Hasmanda3.408680WSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113WSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.383930A. Svoboda1.531111113WSep 10 · 07:00L. Sulava3.70612111162A. Svoboda1.19111477113LSep 10 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.5010550V. Dolezal2.501211113
J. Steffan10
WSep 11 · 07:00J. Steffan2.20131112113O. Fejtek1.611191491WSep 9 · 16:59T. Regner2.258760J. Steffan1.571111113LSep 9 · 16:00J. Didi2.02119118113J. Steffan1.7081181162LSep 9 · 15:00T. Regner2.131212211113J. Steffan1.56141011692LSep 9 · 14:30J. Steffan1.37791191M. Stefek2.6011119113LSep 8 · 03:30J. Steffan2.031171011K. Darin1.6291112113WSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan1.91911115113P. Picek1.8011951192WSep 8 · 01:00J. Steffan2.001111113O. Vitrovyj1.739760WSep 8 · 24:00M. Placek1.40811371J. Steffan2.7511411113LSep 7 · 22:30K. Darin1.61114811113J. Steffan2.2061111672
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