TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13103496
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
1.37
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911119911––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Steffan at 62.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 6–2 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (65%)
Steffan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Steffan
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1417 vs Stefek 1357
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 60% vs Stefek 40%
Steffan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan -1 · Stefek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Steffan) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.37 / Stefek 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Steffan)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13103496
Steffan1.37
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 132 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it80% 105 of 131
Stefek2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 187 of 437
Down 0–1, comes back22% 55 of 246
Down 0–2, comes back7% 11 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSteffan6wins
AwayStefek2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderSteffan leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan85.7%6 of 7
AwayStefekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan7Stefek1n = 8Steffan took 7 of 8
S2Steffan6Stefek2n = 8Steffan took 6 of 8
S3Steffan3Stefek5n = 8Stefek took 5 of 8
S4Steffan5Stefek1n = 6Steffan took 5 of 6
S5Steffan1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSteffanStefekSteffan − StefekBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match42.433.2+9.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 971 vs 572 / 120047.9%47.7%465 / 971 vs 572 / 1200Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SteffanSteffan 1.37/Stefek 2.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Steffan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 22 · 10:00J. Steffan—1111113M. Stefek—4690
LJun 1 · 12:00J. Steffan—9111011122M. Stefek—114125143
WMay 31 · 17:00J. Steffan—1110119113M. Stefek—51281142
LMay 31 · 16:00J. Steffan—14861182M. Stefek—1211118113
WMay 8 · 22:00J. Steffan—11113113M. Stefek—641151
WApr 23 · 01:30J. Steffan—1111113M. Stefek—6930
WMar 18 · 09:00J. Steffan—11117113M. Stefek—831131
WMar 17 · 01:30J. Steffan—111112113M. Stefek—791491
J. Steffan10
LSep 8 · 03:30J. Steffan2.031171011K. Darin1.6291112113WSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan1.91911115113P. Picek1.8011951192WSep 8 · 01:00J. Steffan2.001111113O. Vitrovyj1.739760WSep 8 · 24:00M. Placek1.40811371J. Steffan2.7511411113LSep 7 · 22:30K. Darin1.61114811113J. Steffan2.2061111672LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113
M. Stefek10
WSep 9 · 09:04M. Stefek1.73613311123J. Didi2.001111116102WSep 9 · 08:00J. Didi1.619911101M. Stefek2.2011118123LSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102LSep 9 · 06:30M. Stefek1.83811101172J. Pleskot1.83119129113LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113WSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.614913101M. Stefek2.20111111123WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek1.91111166113R. Bartunek1.8096111162WSep 7 · 22:00J. Framberk2.00105100M. Stefek1.731211123LSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671
Upcoming Matches
J. Steffan
M. Stefek1 of 8 neutral
Sep 9 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83J. Didi1.83—Sep 9 · 16:30M. Stefek2.10T. Regner1.67—Sep 10 · 06:00M. Stefek1.80L. Sulava1.80—Sep 10 · 07:30M. Stefek2.11V. Dolezal1.57—Sep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.11A. Svoboda1.57—Sep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.11V. Dolezal1.57—Sep 10 · 11:00M. Stefek1.80R. Hasmanda1.80—Sep 10 · 12:00M. Stefek—A. Svoboda——
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