TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13096928
Played Sep 8Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411711117911––
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:19 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 54.4%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 17–33 Vaclav Dolezal Martin Stefek has won 17 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stefek beat Dolezal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:19What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-33 in 50
Dolezal
Correct
gap of 16 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1362 vs Dolezal 1438
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Dolezal 60%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Dolezal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +4 · Dolezal -1
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dolezal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.00 / Dolezal 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Dolezal)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13096928
Stefek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 187 of 434
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 244
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Dolezal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 134 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it80% 97 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek5wins
AwayDolezal5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek62.5%5 of 8
AwayDolezaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek8Dolezal2n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S2Stefek3Dolezal7n = 10Dolezal took 7 of 10
S3Stefek5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek2Dolezal4n = 6Dolezal took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekDolezalS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.737.3−2.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime570 / 1195 vs 373 / 75947.7%49.1%570 / 1195 vs 373 / 759Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalStefek 2.00/Dolezal 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek—115681V. Dolezal—91111113
WSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek—1191011123V. Dolezal—911129102
LAug 31 · 02:30M. Stefek—1181571V. Dolezal—91117113
LAug 28 · 03:28M. Stefek—116761V. Dolezal—71111113
LAug 28 · 01:30M. Stefek—571151V. Dolezal—11118113
WAug 24 · 17:30M. Stefek—121014113V. Dolezal—10121271
WAug 24 · 14:30M. Stefek—1113113V. Dolezal—91190
WAug 23 · 12:30M. Stefek—1111113V. Dolezal—9650
LAug 23 · 07:30M. Stefek—7360V. Dolezal—1111113
WAug 21 · 01:00M. Stefek—1211113V. Dolezal—10990
M. Stefek10
WSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.614913101M. Stefek2.20111111123WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek1.91111166113R. Bartunek1.8096111162WSep 7 · 22:00J. Framberk2.00105100M. Stefek1.731211123LSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721
V. Dolezal10
LSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.614913101M. Stefek2.20111111123WSep 8 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.4011117113J. Framberk2.75871191WSep 8 · 24:00R. Bartunek2.00611671V. Dolezal1.7311511113WSep 7 · 22:30T. Regner2.385490V. Dolezal1.531111113LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113
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