TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087317
Played Sep 7Finished
Tomas Regner
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411911––––
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 51 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 59.2%
51 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Regner 8–34 Vaclav Dolezal Tomas Regner has won 8 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-34 in 42
Dolezal
Correct
gap of 26 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1451 vs Dolezal 1414
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Dolezal 20%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 30% vs Dolezal 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -3 · Dolezal -2
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.38 / Dolezal 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Dolezal)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087317
Regner2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 124 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back26% 37 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 72
Dolezal1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 134 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it80% 97 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner5wins
AwayDolezal5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner83.3%5 of 6
AwayDolezal100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner6Dolezal4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S2Regner6Dolezal4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Regner4Dolezal6n = 10Dolezal took 6 of 10
S4Regner1Dolezal4n = 5Dolezal took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerDolezalR − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.534.7−1.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime483 / 969 vs 370 / 75549.9%49%483 / 969 vs 370 / 755Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalRegner 2.38/Dolezal 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 15:30T. Regner—6880V. Dolezal—1111113
WAug 23 · 11:00T. Regner—1211113V. Dolezal—10940
LAug 23 · 08:30T. Regner—811561V. Dolezal—11811113
WAug 19 · 22:00T. Regner—1111123V. Dolezal—89100
WJul 6 · 01:00T. Regner—1111113V. Dolezal—6750
LJun 28 · 23:30T. Regner—511531V. Dolezal—11511113
WMay 27 · 23:00T. Regner—149119123V. Dolezal—1211511102
LMar 26 · 10:30T. Regner—61060V. Dolezal—1112113
LMar 26 · 07:30T. Regner—1311391V. Dolezal—111311113
WMar 13 · 01:00T. Regner—111112113V. Dolezal—871491
T. Regner10
LSep 7 · 23:30J. Framberk2.0011118143T. Regner1.739811121LSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:30T. Regner2.008560R. Bartunek1.731111113LSep 1 · 24:30O. Kucirek1.7311811113T. Regner2.00511651WAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:30T. Regner2.2511113113J. Didi1.57921171LAug 31 · 21:00T. Regner1.57111112862O. Fejtek2.259131011113LAug 31 · 20:30T. Regner2.257860J. Didi1.571111113WAug 31 · 19:00T. Regner2.201111113O. Fejtek1.617270LAug 31 · 18:30J. Steffan1.5711115113T. Regner2.25771191
V. Dolezal10
LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek2.201191011123V. Dolezal1.61911129102LSep 4 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.5371114882J. Didi2.381141211113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda1.839111413123V. Dolezal1.831151611102WSep 3 · 03:04V. Dolezal1.2011139113J. Didi4.335111151
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