TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086855
Played Sep 8Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
41191113111012––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 56.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 33–17 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 17 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Dolezal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-17 in 50
Dolezal
Wrong
gap of 16 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1453 vs Stefek 1347
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 50% vs Stefek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +3 · Stefek +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 1.61 / Stefek 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Dolezal)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086855
Dolezal1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 134 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it80% 97 of 122
Stefek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 187 of 434
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 244
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal5wins
AwayStefek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezaln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStefek62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal2Stefek8n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S2Dolezal7Stefek3n = 10Dolezal took 7 of 10
S3Dolezal5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S4Dolezal4Stefek2n = 6Dolezal took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalStefekD − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.334.7+2.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 758 vs 569 / 119449.2%47.7%373 / 758 vs 569 / 1194Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalDolezal 1.61/Stefek 2.20
Miss
What we said
59.7%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 01:30V. Dolezal—91111113M. Stefek—115681
LSep 4 · 20:30V. Dolezal—911129102M. Stefek—1191011123
WAug 31 · 02:30V. Dolezal—91117113M. Stefek—1181571
WAug 28 · 03:28V. Dolezal—71111113M. Stefek—116761
WAug 28 · 01:30V. Dolezal—11118113M. Stefek—571151
LAug 24 · 17:30V. Dolezal—10121271M. Stefek—121014113
LAug 24 · 14:30V. Dolezal—91190M. Stefek—1113113
LAug 23 · 12:30V. Dolezal—9650M. Stefek—1111113
WAug 23 · 07:30V. Dolezal—1111113M. Stefek—7360
LAug 21 · 01:00V. Dolezal—10990M. Stefek—1211113
V. Dolezal10
WSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113WSep 8 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.4011117113J. Framberk2.75871191WSep 8 · 24:00R. Bartunek2.00611671V. Dolezal1.7311511113WSep 7 · 22:30T. Regner2.385490V. Dolezal1.531111113LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113
M. Stefek10
LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek1.91111166113R. Bartunek1.8096111162WSep 7 · 22:00J. Framberk2.00105100M. Stefek1.731211123LSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.