TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086849
Played Sep 8Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
31112101111151210
Tomas Regner
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 86 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Regner at 55.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 17–20 Tomas Regner Martin Stefek has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Regner
Wrong
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1333 vs Regner 1423
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 40% vs Regner 0%
Stefek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 30% vs Regner 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +2 · Regner -5
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (0%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.20 / Regner 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Regner)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086849
Stefek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 187 of 434
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 244
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Regner1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 99 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it73% 67 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek3wins
AwayRegner7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek40%2 of 5
AwayRegner80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Stefek4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S4Stefek4Regner5n = 9Regner took 5 of 9
S5Stefek2Regner5n = 7Regner took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekRegnerS − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.943.2−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime568 / 1193 vs 480 / 96747.6%49.6%568 / 1193 vs 480 / 967Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerStefek 2.20/Regner 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 16:00M. Stefek—911111113T. Regner—11116482
LAug 23 · 13:30M. Stefek—5580T. Regner—1111113
LAug 23 · 10:30M. Stefek—11651162T. Regner—811118113
WAug 23 · 09:00M. Stefek—11115113T. Regner—341171
LAug 23 · 06:00M. Stefek—101113842T. Regner—1261111113
LAug 20 · 20:58M. Stefek—11116582T. Regner—591111113
LAug 20 · 19:30M. Stefek—12119462T. Regner—1091111113
WAug 9 · 08:58M. Stefek—118117113T. Regner—81171192
LAug 9 · 07:30M. Stefek—611851T. Regner—11711113
LAug 8 · 19:30M. Stefek—137111122T. Regner—151184113
M. Stefek10
WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek1.91111166113R. Bartunek1.8096111162WSep 7 · 22:00J. Framberk2.00105100M. Stefek1.731211123LSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781
T. Regner10
LSep 7 · 23:30J. Framberk2.0011118143T. Regner1.739811121LSep 7 · 22:30T. Regner2.385490V. Dolezal1.531111113LSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:30T. Regner2.008560R. Bartunek1.731111113LSep 1 · 24:30O. Kucirek1.7311811113T. Regner2.00511651WAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 31 · 22:30T. Regner2.2511113113J. Didi1.57921171LAug 31 · 21:00T. Regner1.57111112862O. Fejtek2.259131011113LAug 31 · 20:30T. Regner2.257860J. Didi1.571111113WAug 31 · 19:00T. Regner2.201111113O. Fejtek1.617270
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