TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091481
Played Sep 7Finished
Kyryl Darin
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11212101416117––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 83 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Kyryl Darin at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 2–1 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stefek beat Darin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:57What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1344 vs Stefek 1310
Darin
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 20% vs Stefek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 20% vs Stefek 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +1 · Stefek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Darin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.50 / Stefek 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Darin)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091481
Darin1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 163 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it91% 83 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it74% 113 of 153
Stefek2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 187 of 434
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 244
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDarin2wins
AwayStefek1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderDarin leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin2Stefek1n = 3Darin took 2 of 3
S2Darin1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
S3Darin2Stefek1n = 3Darin took 2 of 3
S4Darin2Stefek1n = 3Darin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDarinStefekD − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match47.744.0+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime747 / 1547 vs 566 / 119048.3%47.6%747 / 1547 vs 566 / 1190Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.50/Stefek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 06:00K. Darin—71112792M. Stefek—1181011113
WFeb 17 · 10:05K. Darin—131011113M. Stefek—1112581
WFeb 17 · 09:00K. Darin—118811143M. Stefek—811113122
K. Darin10
WSep 7 · 08:30K. Darin1.44121111113J. Didi2.63147991LSep 7 · 07:00K. Darin1.618690T. Andrle2.201111113LSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:00K. Darin1.801111511102F. Jungman1.91281113123WSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.738111011113K. Darin2.0011912472LSep 5 · 20:30K. Darin2.505511101J. Plachy1.5011118123LSep 5 · 19:00K. Darin1.91316100Y. Holovatiuk1.801118123
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
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