TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086851
Played Sep 7Finished
Kyryl Darin
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116411811116117
Jan Steffan
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 86 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Kyryl Darin at 55.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 75–33 Jan Steffan Jan Steffan has won 33 of their 108 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
75-33 in 108
Darin
Correct
gap of 42 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1355 vs Steffan 1386
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 40% vs Steffan 20%
Darin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 30% vs Steffan 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +2 · Steffan -4
Steffan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Darin) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.61 / Steffan 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Darin)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13086851
Darin1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 163 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it91% 83 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it74% 113 of 153
Steffan2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 93 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin7wins
AwaySteffan3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin100%5 of 5
AwaySteffan60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S2Darin4Steffan6n = 10Steffan took 6 of 10
S3Darin9Steffan1n = 10Darin took 9 of 10
S4Darin5Steffan1n = 6Darin took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinSteffanD − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.032.3+5.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime747 / 1544 vs 462 / 96648.4%47.8%747 / 1544 vs 462 / 966Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.61/Steffan 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 08:00K. Darin—57111192J. Steffan—111155113
LAug 22 · 11:00K. Darin—10911111J. Steffan—12118133
WAug 19 · 18:00K. Darin—11511113J. Steffan—611671
WAug 17 · 21:30K. Darin—1114143J. Steffan—812120
WAug 17 · 18:00K. Darin—771111113J. Steffan—11119552
LAug 12 · 12:00K. Darin—88100J. Steffan—1111123
WJul 23 · 22:00K. Darin—1111113J. Steffan—3970
WJul 8 · 11:30K. Darin—11511113J. Steffan—611651
WMay 24 · 23:00K. Darin—71311113J. Steffan—1111481
WMay 23 · 03:30K. Darin—1111113J. Steffan—8460
K. Darin10
LSep 7 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511117123K. Darin1.338711101WSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671WSep 7 · 08:30K. Darin1.44121111113J. Didi2.63147991LSep 7 · 07:00K. Darin1.618690T. Andrle2.201111113LSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:00K. Darin1.801111511102F. Jungman1.91281113123WSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.738111011113K. Darin2.0011912472
J. Steffan10
WSep 8 · 24:00M. Placek1.40811371J. Steffan2.7511411113LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113
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